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VRRM

Verra MobilityB
Nasdaq / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Government Solutions installations, retained rental-car customers and the incoming CEO could improve confidence if growth converts into durable margin and cash flow.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-30 · BMO.
What can break
Adjusted EBITDA margin fell three percentage points year over year, while operating cash flow and free cash flow declined. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
Momentum
4
Value
73
Sentiment
51
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.10 · Bull $4.00 · Bear $1.90Analysis 2026-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-30 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $6.83
Why
Momentum4 · Δ7d +1.6
Value73 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment51 · Δ7d -9.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-30 · BMO.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Adjusted EBITDA margin fell three percentage points year over year, while operating cash flow and free cash flow declined. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
  • • Q2 net loss was $48.2 million, driven primarily by goodwill and intangible-asset impairments and higher operating expenses. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
  • • The Q2 GAAP net loss, lower adjusted EBITDA margin and weaker free cash flow leave substantial execution risk despite revenue growth.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-30 · BMO

Incoming CEO transition

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
4
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.6
Δ21d
+1.9
Value
73
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
51
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.3
Δ21d
-28.4
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 3.7 / Value 72.7 / Sentiment 51.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-02. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$4.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$3.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$1.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$469.63M
Beta
0.59
Shares Out
151.98M
P/E (TTM)
70.3
P/S (TTM)
3.81
P/FCF (TTM)
23.51
Rev YoY
+11.7%
EPS YoY
-232.8%
Gross Margin
+79.3%
Op Margin
+24.2%
Net Debt
$997.82M
Current Ratio
2.05
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data