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VRRM

Verra MobilityA
Nasdaq / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 revenue increased 12% to $263.6 million, operating cash flow was $56.4 million, and the Avis, Hertz and Los Angeles developments support customer retention and longer-term program visibility. A stabilization of revised guidance could produce meaningful upside from the depressed anchor price.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +18.8.
What can break
Commercial Services depends on major rental-car relationships; renewals support continuity, but the available evidence does not disclose pricing or margin economics.
Momentum
2
Value
72
Sentiment
85
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.80 · Bull $5.25 · Bear $2.50Analysis 2026-09-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $7.00
Why
Momentum2 · Δ7d -0.5
Value72 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment85 · Δ7d +18.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +18.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Commercial Services depends on major rental-car relationships; renewals support continuity, but the available evidence does not disclose pricing or margin economics.
  • • Impairments and increased operating expenses could keep GAAP profitability and investor confidence under pressure.
  • • The Q2 net loss was $48.2 million, impairment and higher operating expenses weighed on reported profitability, and management revised FY2026 guidance.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-05

Major rental-car customer renewals improve revenue visibility

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
2
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-2.4
Value
72
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
85
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+18.8
Δ21d
+27.9
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 1.8 / Value 72.0 / Sentiment 85.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-11. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$3.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$2.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$699.12M
Beta
0.59
Shares Out
151.98M
P/E (TTM)
70.3
P/S (TTM)
3.81
P/FCF (TTM)
23.51
Rev YoY
+11.7%
EPS YoY
-232.8%
Gross Margin
+79.3%
Op Margin
+24.2%
Net Debt
$997.82M
Current Ratio
2.05
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data