B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$39.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
VRNS
VaronisFNasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The best-supported bull read is that April 28, 2026 results showed strong execution during the SaaS transition: revenue rose to $173.1 million from $136.4 million, SaaS ARR ex-conversions grew 29%, management cited accelerating new logos plus expansion, and full-year guidance was raised. [#SEC-8K-2026-04-28]
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
What can break
Competition risk is real in DSPM, discovery/classification, privacy, migration, DSAR, and Active Directory security, with larger vendors potentially able to pressure pricing, margins, and sales cycles. [#10-K-2026-02-04]
Momentum
73
Value
41
Sentiment
21
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $34.00 · Bull $39.00 · Bear $26.00Analysis 2026-06-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $50.83
Why
Momentum73 · Δ7d -16.4
Value41 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment21 · Δ7d +0.9
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Competition risk is real in DSPM, discovery/classification, privacy, migration, DSAR, and Active Directory security, with larger vendors potentially able to pressure pricing, margins, and sales cycles. [#10-K-2026-02-04]
- • If AI-security demand or expansion activity cools, the stock could give back some of the optimism embedded after the April 28, 2026 earnings release because guidance was already raised. [#SEC-8K-2026-04-28]
- • The bear read is that this is still a transition story, not a fully de-risked software compounder: GAAP operating loss remained $44.5 million, operating cash flow and free cash flow were down year over year in Q1, and the 10-K explicitly warns that conversions, renewals, pricing pressure, longer sales cycles, and larger competitors can create meaningful volatility.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-31
Raised 2026 SaaS ARR and revenue outlook needs a clean Q2 follow-through
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
73
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-16.4
Δ21d
-22.2
Value
41
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
21
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.9
Δ21d
-6.1
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 73.4 / Value 41.5 / Sentiment 21.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-23. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$5.64B
Beta
0.58
Shares Out
115.3M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-43.2
P/S (TTM)
6.36
P/FCF (TTM)
29.47
Rev YoY
+18.8%
EPS YoY
+27.5%
Gross Margin
+77.1%
Op Margin
-24.0%
Net Debt
-$399.22M
Current Ratio
1.65
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data