B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
VRDN
Viridian TherapeuticsDNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Lumvoa converts early physician interest into reimbursed treatment, while 2026 pipeline milestones and a timely elegrobart BLA broaden Viridian's TED opportunity. The company reported $981.5 million of cash, equivalents and marketable securities at June 30, 2026.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -19.9.
What can break
Amgen's established TEPEZZA franchise and subcutaneous program may constrain differentiation. Amgen company release
Momentum
52
Value
41
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $23.00 · Bull $34.00 · Bear $11.00Analysis 2026-09-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $36.20
Why
Momentum52 · Δ7d +10.1
Value41 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment57 · Δ7d -19.9
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -19.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Amgen's established TEPEZZA franchise and subcutaneous program may constrain differentiation. Amgen company release
- • Commercial spending, continued net losses and financing-related dilution or debt obligations could pressure valuation. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-06]
- • Early launch indicators may not translate into durable sales amid payer friction and TEPEZZA competition.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
VRDN-008 phase 1 data and TSHR IND
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
52
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+10.1
Δ21d
+4.6
Value
41
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
57
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-19.9
Δ21d
-26.4
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 51.8 / Value 40.6 / Sentiment 57.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-30. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$23.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$2.53B
Beta
0.96
Shares Out
113.29M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-6.7
P/S (TTM)
40.72
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-6.48
Rev YoY
+278.7%
EPS YoY
-4.6%
Gross Margin
+98.8%
Op Margin
-569.7%
Net Debt
-$823.96M
Current Ratio
16.95
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data