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VNOM

Viper EnergyB
Nasdaq / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The post-earnings read is modestly constructive: production outperformed internal expectations, debt fell by about $600 million from year-end, and management paired that with continued buybacks/dividends plus a new bolt-on Permian royalty acquisition.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Commodity-price sensitivity remains high, with realized pricing and cash returns exposed to oil, gas, and NGL volatility.
Momentum
39
Value
52
Sentiment
75
Setup hits (3d)
2 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $51.00 · Bull $57.00 · Bear $43.00Analysis 2026-05-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $55.00
Why
Momentum39 · Δ7d +11.8
Value52 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment75 · Δ7d +8.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +8.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Commodity-price sensitivity remains high, with realized pricing and cash returns exposed to oil, gas, and NGL volatility.
  • • Dividend and repurchase support is discretionary despite the large authorization, so capital returns can change if commodity prices, liquidity, or board priorities shift.
  • • This is still a monitoring setup rather than a strong upgrade because verified analyst revision data and consensus surprise data were not available in the checked sources, the updated 2026 guidance excludes the pending Riverbend deal, and forward volumes remain sensitive to third-party operator timing and commodity prices.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-05

Q1 earnings showed stronger production and a modest positive initial tape reaction

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
39
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+11.8
Δ21d
+7.6
Value
52
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+3.8
Sentiment
75
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.5
Δ21d
-2.4
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 39.3 / Value 51.6 / Sentiment 74.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$57.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$51.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$43.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$15.46B
Beta
0.50
Shares Out
194.41M
P/E (TTM)
15.3
P/S (TTM)
11.18
P/FCF (TTM)
66.57
Rev YoY
+129.3%
EPS YoY
+158.0%
Gross Margin
+51.7%
Op Margin
+48.9%
Net Debt
$2.17B
Current Ratio
6.37
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data