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VNCE

VinceA
Nasdaq / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Double-digit Q2 growth across both channels, a raised Vince-business outlook, lower long-term debt, and potential OVO distribution expansion support upside if underlying margins improve after temporary items [#SEC-8K-2026-09-10].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.7.
What can break
Fiscal-2026 guidance excludes OVO, so acquisition economics, integration costs, and the timing of distribution expansion remain uncertain.
Momentum
99
Value
50
Sentiment
89
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.25 · Bull $7.25 · Bear $3.25Analysis 2026-09-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $9.00
Why
Momentum99 · Δ7d +0.2
Value50 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment89 · Δ7d -1.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Fiscal-2026 guidance excludes OVO, so acquisition economics, integration costs, and the timing of distribution expansion remain uncertain.
  • • Higher product costs and freight reduced Q2 gross margin by approximately 160 and 130 basis points, respectively [#SEC-8K-2026-09-10].
  • • The headline Q2 margin and adjusted earnings benefited materially from a $10.4 million tariff refund, while underlying gross margin was 48.2%, SG&A increased, and OVO adds integration risk.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-10

Q2 growth and higher fiscal-2026 outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
99
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
-0.0
Value
50
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.7
Sentiment
89
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.7
Δ21d
-11.3
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 98.7 / Value 49.5 / Sentiment 88.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-11. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$5.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$3.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$79.53M
Beta
0.68
Shares Out
12.85M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
12.6
P/S (TTM)
0.20
P/FCF (TTM)
13.53
Rev YoY
+10.5%
EPS YoY
-56.4%
Gross Margin
+49.8%
Op Margin
+3.5%
Net Debt
$121.89M
Current Ratio
1.74
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data