B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
VNCE
VinceFNasdaq / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Double-digit Q2 growth across both channels, a raised Vince-business outlook, lower long-term debt, and potential OVO distribution expansion support upside if underlying margins improve after temporary items [#SEC-8K-2026-09-10].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.8.
What can break
Fiscal-2026 guidance excludes OVO, so acquisition economics, integration costs, and the timing of distribution expansion remain uncertain.
Momentum
100
Value
44
Sentiment
0
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.25 · Bull $7.25 · Bear $3.25Analysis 2026-09-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $16.00
Why
Momentum100 · Δ7d -0.1
Value44 · Δ7d +0.8
Sentiment0 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Fiscal-2026 guidance excludes OVO, so acquisition economics, integration costs, and the timing of distribution expansion remain uncertain.
- • Higher product costs and freight reduced Q2 gross margin by approximately 160 and 130 basis points, respectively [#SEC-8K-2026-09-10].
- • The headline Q2 margin and adjusted earnings benefited materially from a $10.4 million tariff refund, while underlying gross margin was 48.2%, SG&A increased, and OVO adds integration risk.
Catalyst clock
2026-09-10
Q2 growth and higher fiscal-2026 outlook
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
100
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+0.1
Value
44
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
0
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-1.6
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 99.6 / Value 44.1 / Sentiment 0.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-11. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$5.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$3.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$147.7M
Beta
0.68
Shares Out
12.94M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
23.2
P/S (TTM)
0.20
P/FCF (TTM)
13.53
Rev YoY
+10.5%
EPS YoY
-56.4%
Gross Margin
+49.8%
Op Margin
+3.5%
Net Debt
$121.89M
Current Ratio
1.74
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data