B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
VLRS
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CVBNYSE / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 TRASM rose 22% year over year, and September RPM growth exceeded capacity growth. Sustained pricing and capacity discipline, followed by a favorable Viva decision, could improve earnings expectations #PR-2026-07-21 #PR-2026-10-06.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.
What can break
Fuel and non-fuel cost inflation could overwhelm fare gains; Q2 CASM rose 31% year over year #PR-2026-07-21.
Momentum
17
Value
65
Sentiment
55
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.80 · Bull $7.20 · Bear $4.20Analysis 2026-10-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $8.95
Why
Momentum17 · Δ7d -3.8
Value65 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment55 · Δ7d -14.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Fuel and non-fuel cost inflation could overwhelm fare gains; Q2 CASM rose 31% year over year #PR-2026-07-21.
- • Q2 net debt to trailing EBITDAR was 3.3x; weaker margins would reduce balance-sheet flexibility #PR-2026-07-21.
- • Q2's 16.3% EBITDAR margin fell 11.6 percentage points year over year despite higher unit revenue.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-27
Q3 results test whether traffic growth covered higher costs
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
17
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-3.8
Δ21d
-7.6
Value
65
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
-0.3
Sentiment
55
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-14.1
Δ21d
-13.2
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 17.0 / Value 65.1 / Sentiment 55.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-21. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$5.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$4.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$662.55M
Beta
1.88
Shares Out
114.95M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-6.4
P/S (TTM)
0.36
P/FCF (TTM)
2.58
Rev YoY
+22.1%
EPS YoY
+98.5%
Gross Margin
+3.9%
Op Margin
-4.8%
Net Debt
$3.08B
Current Ratio
0.64
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data