B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$9.31
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
VLRS
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CVBNYSE / Transportation
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
June international RPM growth and passenger volume were constructive. If Q2 results show that traffic strength is translating into acceptable yield, revenue, and margins despite fuel pressure, VLRS could move toward the weakly supported analyst median target of $9.31.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.4.
What can break
Analyst target revisions, rating changes, and estimate revisions are unavailable.
Momentum
9
Value
66
Sentiment
78
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $7.66 · Bull $9.31 · Bear $6.20Analysis 2026-07-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $9.58
Why
Momentum9 · Δ7d -2.8
Value66 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment78 · Δ7d -1.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Analyst target revisions, rating changes, and estimate revisions are unavailable.
- • Elevated fuel costs could offset traffic and capacity growth.
- • Capacity growth outpaced RPM growth in June and load factor declined modestly.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-21
Q2 2026 earnings are the key near-term proof point
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
9
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.8
Δ21d
-16.0
Value
66
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-3.4
Sentiment
78
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.4
Δ21d
+12.8
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 9.3 / Value 65.7 / Sentiment 78.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-18. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$7.66
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$6.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$888.53M
Beta
1.88
Shares Out
114.95M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-8.5
P/S (TTM)
0.36
P/FCF (TTM)
2.58
Rev YoY
+22.1%
EPS YoY
+98.5%
Gross Margin
+3.9%
Op Margin
-4.8%
Net Debt
$3.08B
Current Ratio
0.64
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data