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VITL

Vital FarmsD
Nasdaq / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The constructive read is that the brand still produced 15.4% revenue growth, volume growth added $34.7 million in Q1, and management is now prioritizing price-gap repair, cost discipline, and core egg focus after a decisive reset.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-23.
What can break
Butter wind-down costs remain unquantified, and the company said it may incur inventory charges, packaging write-downs, and other discontinuation costs.
Momentum
9
Value
44
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $8.50 · Bull $12.00 · Bear $6.50Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $12.67
Why
Momentum9 · Δ7d -3.9
Value44 · Δ7d -0.5
Sentiment52 · Δ7d -8.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-23.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -8.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Butter wind-down costs remain unquantified, and the company said it may incur inventory charges, packaging write-downs, and other discontinuation costs.
  • • Cash and marketable securities fell to $51.4 million at March 29, 2026 after VXR spending, accelerator-farm investment, and $20 million of buybacks, while Q1 operating cash flow turned negative.
  • • The bearish read is that the quarter broke the prior growth-plus-margin narrative: EPS missed consensus, gross margin compressed more than 1,000 bps, EBITDA guidance was cut from $105-$115 million in February to $0-$10 million, and the 10-Q says oversupply countermeasures may last throughout 2026.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-07

Q1 earnings reset cut FY26 outlook and exposed a sharp margin/earnings air pocket

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
9
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-3.9
Δ21d
-7.3
Value
44
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.5
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
52
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.1
Δ21d
-9.6
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 8.8 / Value 43.7 / Sentiment 52.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$392.4M
Beta
1.11
Shares Out
42.93M
P/E (TTM)
22.5
P/S (TTM)
1.87
P/FCF (TTM)
36.76
Rev YoY
-10.1%
EPS YoY
-299.2%
Gross Margin
+29.1%
Op Margin
+0.5%
Net Debt
-$59.86M
Current Ratio
1.10
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data