B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
VIR
Vir BiotechnologyCNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q1 update materially strengthened the balance-sheet and execution narrative: the Astellas collaboration closed, management pointed to $315 million of collaboration-related cash not yet in the March 31 balance, runway was extended into the second half of 2028, and the company kept multiple 2026 data hooks across CHD and oncology [#8-K-2026-05-06] [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.7.
What can break
Lead-program risk remains high because the biggest value inflection is still late-2026 ECLIPSE 1 topline in chronic hepatitis delta, with later ECLIPSE 2 and 3 data following in 2027 [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Momentum
84
Value
41
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $10.50 · Bull $16.00 · Bear $6.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $20.78
Why
Momentum84 · Δ7d -6.7
Value41 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment62 · Δ7d +9.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Lead-program risk remains high because the biggest value inflection is still late-2026 ECLIPSE 1 topline in chronic hepatitis delta, with later ECLIPSE 2 and 3 data following in 2027 [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
- • Management continuity is still a watch item after the disclosed Chief Medical Officer departure and successor search, which adds some execution risk while multiple programs advance [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
- • The post-earnings package still supports a monitoring thesis rather than a clean re-rating call: Vir remains loss-making, Q1 net loss was $125.7 million, commercial revenue remains immaterial, and the decisive upside still depends on later 2026 and 2027 clinical milestones instead of near-term fundamentals [#8-K-2026-05-06].
Catalyst clock
2026-05-27
EASL CHD update is the next clean data checkpoint
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
84
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.7
Δ21d
+50.6
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
62
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.7
Δ21d
-14.2
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 83.8 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 61.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$6.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.59B
Beta
1.69
Shares Out
169.22M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-3.0
P/S (TTM)
47.78
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-5.99
Rev YoY
+19582.5%
EPS YoY
-159.2%
Gross Margin
+96.2%
Op Margin
-682.7%
Net Debt
-$371.09M
Current Ratio
6.04
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data