B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
VIR
Vir BiotechnologyDNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q1 update materially strengthened the balance-sheet and execution narrative: the Astellas collaboration closed, management pointed to $315 million of collaboration-related cash not yet in the March 31 balance, runway was extended into the second half of 2028, and the company kept multiple 2026 data hooks across CHD and oncology [#8-K-2026-05-06] [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29.
What can break
Lead-program risk remains high because the biggest value inflection is still late-2026 ECLIPSE 1 topline in chronic hepatitis delta, with later ECLIPSE 2 and 3 data following in 2027 [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
Momentum
89
Value
41
Sentiment
49
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $10.50 · Bull $16.00 · Bear $6.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $21.00
Why
Momentum89 · Δ7d +1.1
Value41 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment49 · Δ7d -9.9
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -9.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Lead-program risk remains high because the biggest value inflection is still late-2026 ECLIPSE 1 topline in chronic hepatitis delta, with later ECLIPSE 2 and 3 data following in 2027 [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
- • Management continuity is still a watch item after the disclosed Chief Medical Officer departure and successor search, which adds some execution risk while multiple programs advance [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
- • The post-earnings package still supports a monitoring thesis rather than a clean re-rating call: Vir remains loss-making, Q1 net loss was $125.7 million, commercial revenue remains immaterial, and the decisive upside still depends on later 2026 and 2027 clinical milestones instead of near-term fundamentals [#8-K-2026-05-06].
Catalyst clock
2026-10-29
EASL CHD update is the next clean data checkpoint
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
89
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.1
Δ21d
-2.9
Value
41
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.3
Sentiment
49
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.9
Δ21d
-1.3
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 88.5 / Value 40.6 / Sentiment 48.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$6.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$1.87B
Beta
1.69
Shares Out
169.22M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-3.5
P/S (TTM)
47.78
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-7.04
Rev YoY
+19582.5%
EPS YoY
-159.2%
Gross Margin
+96.2%
Op Margin
-682.7%
Net Debt
-$371.09M
Current Ratio
6.04
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data