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VIPS

VipshopA
NYSE / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
A durable SVIP cohort and executed repurchases could support the shares if broader customer and order trends stabilize.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
What can break
One-off REIT gains and a withholding-tax adjustment distort earnings comparisons; Q2 operating cash flow was negative.
Momentum
43
Value
72
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $13.50 · Bull $16.00 · Bear $10.00Analysis 2026-10-11; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-11 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $16.26
Why
Momentum43 · Δ7d -8.6
Value72 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment54 · Δ7d +0.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • One-off REIT gains and a withholding-tax adjustment distort earnings comparisons; Q2 operating cash flow was negative.
  • • Q2 non-GAAP operating margin fell to 8.1% from 9.3%; fulfillment, marketing, and technology costs rose as a share of revenue. [#PR-2026-08-25] https://ir.vip.com/news-releases/news-release-details/vipshop-reports-unaudited-second-quarter-2026-financial-results
  • • Q2 revenue declined to RMB24.7 billion from RMB25.8 billion, operating margin fell to 6.2% from 6.6%, and Q3 guidance allows a further revenue decline.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Test of third-quarter revenue guidance

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
43
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.6
Δ21d
+8.1
Value
72
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
54
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
-29.9
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 43.2 / Value 71.8 / Sentiment 53.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-11. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$16.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$13.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$10.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-11 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$5.96B
Beta
0.71
Shares Out
397.7M
P/E (TTM)
9.1
P/S (TTM)
0.58
P/FCF (TTM)
15.85
Rev YoY
+6.3%
EPS YoY
+26.3%
Gross Margin
+23.5%
Op Margin
+6.9%
Net Debt
-$3.36B
Current Ratio
1.26
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data