B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$58.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
VIAV
Viavi SolutionsCNasdaq / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q4 beat, 52.5% year-over-year revenue growth, 24.0% non-GAAP operating margin, and FY27 Q1 guide of $450-$460 million revenue and $0.40-$0.42 non-GAAP EPS support a constructive medium-term thesis [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -8.7.
What can break
As of June 27, VIAVI held $656.7 million in cash and had $641.9 million of senior-note carrying value; FY26 operating cash flow was $113.9 million, leaving balance-sheet and debt-servicing sensitivity [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
Momentum
39
Value
45
Sentiment
68
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $48.00 · Bull $58.00 · Bear $32.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $61.43
Why
Momentum39 · Δ7d +4.1
Value45 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment68 · Δ7d -8.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -8.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • As of June 27, VIAVI held $656.7 million in cash and had $641.9 million of senior-note carrying value; FY26 operating cash flow was $113.9 million, leaving balance-sheet and debt-servicing sensitivity [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
- • Carrier capital-expenditure softness could offset data-center and aerospace/defense growth.
- • The stock's early post-print reaction was softer despite the beat, and no post-print analyst revisions were identified.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-15
Mildly negative post-print tape despite the earnings beat
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
39
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.1
Δ21d
+13.7
Value
45
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.2
Sentiment
68
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.7
Δ21d
+11.6
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 39.4 / Value 45.5 / Sentiment 67.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$48.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$32.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$11.41B
Beta
0.96
Shares Out
246.75M
P/E (TTM)
276.0
P/S (TTM)
3.53
P/FCF (TTM)
51.62
Rev YoY
+52.5%
EPS YoY
+256.0%
Gross Margin
+56.2%
Op Margin
+11.0%
Net Debt
$42.1M
Current Ratio
1.85
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data