B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$50.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
VERA
Vera TherapeuticsCNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The strong ORIGIN 3 final analysis may support full approval while differentiated efficacy helps TRUTAKNA gain share in IgAN [#8-K-2026-09-15]. Successful filing and demonstrable uptake would strengthen the case beyond the already-reported trial win.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-03.
What can break
Full approval remains subject to submission, FDA review and confirmation of clinical benefit; the September trial result is not an approval [#8-K-2026-09-15].
Momentum
21
Value
41
Sentiment
73
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $34.00 · Bull $50.00 · Bear $18.00Analysis 2026-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-11-03
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-28 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-28
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $74.20
Why
Momentum21 · Δ7d -7.9
Value41 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment73 · Δ7d +1.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-03.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Full approval remains subject to submission, FDA review and confirmation of clinical benefit; the September trial result is not an approval [#8-K-2026-09-15].
- • Operating losses and cash use may create financing or dilution pressure; availability under the debt facility is conditional [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10].
- • A positive trial does not establish commercial penetration.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-03
ORIGIN 3 results strengthen the full-approval case
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
21
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-7.9
Δ21d
-8.8
Value
41
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.3
Sentiment
73
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.7
Δ21d
-9.3
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 21.2 / Value 40.6 / Sentiment 72.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-02. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-28
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-28
Market Cap
$2.23B
Beta
1.16
Shares Out
72.06M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-6.6
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-6.28
Rev YoY
-
EPS YoY
+27.0%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
-
Net Debt
-$637.28M
Current Ratio
10.65
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data