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VCTR

Victory CapitalD
Nasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bull read is that Q1 showed a credible operating beat: record revenue, record adjusted EBITDA, record adjusted EPS, materially improved long-term net flows, continued ETF and international-channel strength, and near-complete Pioneer synergy realization [#8-K-2026-05-06].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Integration is not fully finished; management said about $104 million of the expected $110 million of Pioneer synergies had been realized, implying some execution remains [#8-K-2026-05-06].
Momentum
90
Value
51
Sentiment
42
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $80.00 · Bull $92.00 · Bear $72.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $110.33
Why
Momentum90 · Δ7d -2.2
Value51 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment42 · Δ7d +3.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Integration is not fully finished; management said about $104 million of the expected $110 million of Pioneer synergies had been realized, implying some execution remains [#8-K-2026-05-06].
  • • Liquidity tightened sequentially, with cash and cash equivalents falling to $75.8 million from $163.7 million, while financing cash outflows reflected heavy buybacks, dividends, and acquisition-related payments [#10-Q-2026-05-07].
  • • The bear read is that AUM still fell sequentially from market action and net outflows, adjusted EBITDA margin slipped to 52.6% from 52.8% sequentially, the company gave no fresh explicit full-year guidance in checked primary materials, and the stock rallied to a level above the packet median analyst target, leaving less room for upside if revisions do not follow.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-20

Post-earnings beat is real, but the stock is now trading above the packet median analyst target

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
90
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-2.2
Δ21d
-3.0
Value
51
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
42
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.7
Δ21d
+5.7
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 89.9 / Value 50.6 / Sentiment 42.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$92.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$80.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$72.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$7.31B
Beta
1.06
Shares Out
61.51M
P/E (TTM)
16.7
P/S (TTM)
3.66
P/FCF (TTM)
23.05
Rev YoY
+24.7%
EPS YoY
+148.2%
Gross Margin
+77.4%
Op Margin
+45.9%
Net Debt
$851.93M
Current Ratio
2.07
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data