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VATE

INNOVATEA
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The completed DBMG sale brought approximately $413 million of cash at closing, including a $35 million tax-election payment, plus IES shares. Successful debt redemptions could simplify the capital structure.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
What can break
Cash proceeds from the DBMG sale are insufficient by themselves to repay debt coming due; IES-share sale proceeds depend on market price. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-05]
Momentum
8
Value
69
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $6.20 · Bull $8.50 · Bear $3.50Analysis 2026-10-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Why
Momentum8 · Δ7d -0.8
Value69 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment62 · Δ7d +7.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Cash proceeds from the DBMG sale are insufficient by themselves to repay debt coming due; IES-share sale proceeds depend on market price. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-05]
  • • Low coverage, unavailable analyst targets, and loose peer comparability limit valuation confidence.
  • • The sale also removes the infrastructure business that drove the strong Q2 result: company-reported consolidated revenue was $421.6 million, up 74.2% year over year, with DBM Global described as record-performing.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-15

Scheduled senior-note redemption

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
8
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.8
Δ21d
+2.3
Value
69
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
62
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.5
Δ21d
+8.6
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 7.6 / Value 69.2 / Sentiment 62.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-14. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$6.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$3.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$76.4M
Beta
1.63
Shares Out
13.64M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-1.2
P/S (TTM)
0.07
P/FCF (TTM)
1.21
Rev YoY
+74.2%
EPS YoY
-144.5%
Gross Margin
+14.9%
Op Margin
+4.6%
Net Debt
$605.4M
Current Ratio
0.44
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data