B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$80.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
VAC
Marriott Vacations WorldwideFNYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bullish case is that the new leadership team improves sales execution while the company delivers at least the midpoint of FY2026 guidance, letting steady cash generation and the dividend support a recovery from a depressed base [#IR-2026-02-25] [#IR-2026-02-19].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.8.
What can break
Catalyst density is light; the thesis depends on proving guidance rather than on a hard near-term unlock.
Momentum
91
Value
43
Sentiment
25
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $71.00 · Bull $80.00 · Bear $56.00Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $119.60
Why
Momentum91 · Δ7d -1.3
Value43 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment25 · Δ7d +0.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Catalyst density is light; the thesis depends on proving guidance rather than on a hard near-term unlock.
- • Leadership turnover creates execution risk in sales, marketing, and governance.
- • The bearish case is that leadership churn coincides with softer demand, financing friction, or weaker membership trends, leaving the stock stuck in a low-conviction monitoring setup rather than a clean turnaround.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-30
Leadership reset moves from announcement to execution
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
91
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.3
Δ21d
-2.4
Value
43
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
25
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
+11.7
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 90.5 / Value 42.6 / Sentiment 24.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$71.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$56.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$4.11B
Beta
1.34
Shares Out
34.4M
P/E (TTM)
13.3
P/S (TTM)
0.41
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-306.65
Rev YoY
+5.9%
EPS YoY
+13.6%
Gross Margin
+17.4%
Op Margin
+10.4%
Net Debt
$5.02B
Current Ratio
1.22
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data