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UVXY

ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETFN/A
Cboe BZX
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
A sudden, sustained spike in equity volatility and a move toward backwardation could push front-month futures sharply higher, driving UVXY materially above current levels.
Posture
Unrated
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.8.
What can break
Large, short-lived volatility spikes followed by rapid mean reversion
Momentum
3
Value
N/A
Sentiment
16
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $11.79 · Bull $16.51 · Bear $7.07Analysis 2025-10-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-14 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2025-10-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade N/A · Unrated
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Why
Momentum3 · Δ7d +0.0
ValueN/A · Δ7d -
Sentiment16 · Δ7d +6.8
So what
Insufficient data coverage. Recheck when scores populate.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Large, short-lived volatility spikes followed by rapid mean reversion
  • • Prolonged contango causing persistent roll losses
  • • Persistent low realized volatility and steep contango will continue to erode leveraged VIX futures ETFs through roll decay, truncating upside and producing large drawdowns.

Catalyst clock

No dated catalyst is available.

Prolonged low realized volatility and futures contango

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
3
13% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-1.2
Value
N/A
Coverage pending
No current score
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Sentiment
16
87% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.8
Δ21d
+12.4
Why this grade

No composite grade available (requires momentum and value).

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2025-10-16. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$16.51
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$11.79
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$7.07
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2025-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-14
Market Cap
-
Beta
-
Shares Out
14.03M
P/E (TTM)
-
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM)
-
Rev YoY
-
EPS YoY
-
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
-
Net Debt
-
Current Ratio
-
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data