RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

UVV

UniversalA
NYSE / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
If tobacco purchases are deferred rather than lost and ingredients utilization improves, earnings could recover from the weak first quarter.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-03.
What can break
Fiscal Q1 gross margin fell 330 basis points, and Universal reported a $5.0 million attributable net loss [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
Momentum
25
Value
63
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $43.00 · Bull $50.00 · Bear $32.00Analysis 2026-10-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-11-03
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $67.00
Why
Momentum25 · Δ7d -2.7
Value63 · Δ7d -0.3
Sentiment66 · Δ7d -0.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-03.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Fiscal Q1 gross margin fell 330 basis points, and Universal reported a $5.0 million attributable net loss [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
  • • Ingredients faces consumer-market headwinds, high fixed costs at the expanded Lancaster facility and longer-than-anticipated product-development cycles [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
  • • Persistent tobacco oversupply or further customer delays, combined with ingredients fixed-cost pressure, could prolong weak margins and losses.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-03

Second-half tobacco shipments test management's timing thesis

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
25
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-2.7
Δ21d
+2.1
Value
63
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.3
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
66
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-16.4
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 25.4 / Value 63.3 / Sentiment 66.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-06. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$50.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$43.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$32.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$985.02M
Beta
0.65
Shares Out
24.9M
P/E (TTM)
11.9
P/S (TTM)
0.44
P/FCF (TTM)
17.21
Rev YoY
-11.8%
EPS YoY
-159.2%
Gross Margin
+16.7%
Op Margin
+6.2%
Net Debt
$877.64M
Current Ratio
2.57
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data