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UVE

Universal InsuranceA
NYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q3 EPS beat, 91% combined ratio and 32.4% year-over-year increase in book value per share support an improving underwriting thesis. The deterministic prior turned positive, but durability remains to be demonstrated.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
Catastrophe claims may develop beyond management's initial post-quarter assessment. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22]
Momentum
83
Value
61
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $51.00 · Bull $59.00 · Bear $35.00Analysis 2026-10-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $51.00
Why
Momentum83 · Δ7d -3.2
Value61 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment59 · Δ7d +3.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Catastrophe claims may develop beyond management's initial post-quarter assessment. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22]
  • • Florida direct premiums written declined 3.3% year over year despite growth elsewhere. [#EARNINGS-TRANSCRIPT-2026Q3]
  • • Florida direct premiums written fell 3.3% year over year, the expense ratio edged higher, and catastrophe claims can erode recent gains.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-22

Q3 earnings beat, with limited post-print follow-through

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
83
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.2
Δ21d
+3.7
Value
61
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
59
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.7
Δ21d
-12.3
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 82.9 / Value 61.4 / Sentiment 58.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-27. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$59.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$51.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$35.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$1.31B
Beta
0.71
Shares Out
27.83M
P/E (TTM)
7.4
P/S (TTM)
0.55
P/FCF (TTM)
3.90
Rev YoY
+6.7%
EPS YoY
+68.8%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+18.4%
Net Debt
-$377.36M
Current Ratio
0.75
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data