Most likely
B+
Bull case
84%
Probability
Target price
$14.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
UTZ
UTZ BrandsCNYSE / Food Beverage & Tobacco
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The signed cash merger provides a defined $14.25 exit value, with board approval and expected Q4 2026 closing supporting a small remaining spread. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.4.
What can break
Deal termination or delay could produce a substantial downside from the current transaction-implied price.
Momentum
91
Value
45
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $14.12 · Bull $14.25 · Bear $7.46Analysis 2026-08-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $14.21
Why
Momentum91 · Δ7d -2.3
Value45 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment52 · Δ7d +0.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Deal termination or delay could produce a substantial downside from the current transaction-implied price.
- • Merger requires shareholder, disinterested-stockholder and regulatory approvals plus other customary closing conditions.
- • The principal downside is asymmetric deal risk: failure to obtain shareholder or regulatory approval could cause UTZ to reprice toward its pre-announcement level.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-05
Q2 results timing, without an earnings call
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
91
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.3
Δ21d
-3.8
Value
45
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.3
Sentiment
52
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
-6.6
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 91.3 / Value 45.1 / Sentiment 52.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-03. Scenario method
B
Base case
10%
Probability
Target price
$14.12
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
6%
Probability
Target price
$7.46
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$2.06B
Beta
0.93
Shares Out
88.61M
P/E (TTM)
156.0
P/S (TTM)
0.98
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
69.69
Rev YoY
+1.4%
EPS YoY
-195.2%
Gross Margin
+25.3%
Op Margin
+3.9%
Net Debt
$907.7M
Current Ratio
1.06
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data