B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$72.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
USPH
US Physical TherapyDNYSE / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary-source support is real but still monitoring-style: record Q1 revenue, reaffirmed EBITDA guidance, and explicit hospital-alliance EBITDA targets create a credible 2H recovery setup if margin initiatives and acquired clinics ramp as planned [#8-K-2026-05-06].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.3.
What can break
Borrowings increased to $203.9 million at March 31, 2026 from $161.8 million at December 31, 2025, while cash fell to $28.4 million; management said liquidity plus revolver availability is sufficient through at least March 31, 2027, but leverage still raises execution sensitivity [#10-Q-2026-05-08].
Momentum
55
Value
58
Sentiment
39
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $63.00 · Bull $72.00 · Bear $52.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $96.00
Why
Momentum55 · Δ7d +9.0
Value58 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment39 · Δ7d +3.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Borrowings increased to $203.9 million at March 31, 2026 from $161.8 million at December 31, 2025, while cash fell to $28.4 million; management said liquidity plus revolver availability is sufficient through at least March 31, 2027, but leverage still raises execution sensitivity [#10-Q-2026-05-08].
- • Hospital affiliations and acquisitions are central to the 2026 setup, so slower integration, weaker referral conversion, staffing shortages, or lower-than-expected ramp could pressure the reaffirmed EBITDA range [#8-K-2026-05-06].
- • The print still disappointed on earnings quality: net income fell, physical-therapy margin compressed to 15.8% from 16.6%, cash declined to $28.4 million, and borrowings rose to $203.9 million, leaving less room for execution errors if volumes, reimbursement, or integration slip [#8-K-2026-05-06] [#10-Q-2026-05-08].
Catalyst clock
2026-05-31
Post-earnings digestion after Q1 miss but guidance reaffirmation
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
55
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.0
Δ21d
-20.5
Value
58
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-2.6
Sentiment
39
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.3
Δ21d
+1.5
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 55.1 / Value 57.9 / Sentiment 39.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$63.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.17B
Beta
1.29
Shares Out
14.92M
P/E (TTM)
35.4
P/S (TTM)
1.69
P/FCF (TTM)
29.50
Rev YoY
+8.5%
EPS YoY
-56.4%
Gross Margin
+17.5%
Op Margin
+9.8%
Net Debt
$279.6M
Current Ratio
1.27
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data