RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

UPWK

UpworkA
Nasdaq / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Upwork is showing meaningful traction in AI-related work, Business Plus, enterprise positioning, and profitability. Record GSV per active client and 33% adjusted EBITDA margin support the view that mix and monetization are improving despite softer aggregate demand.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +19.3.
What can break
Continued automation-driven displacement of lower-complexity work
Momentum
9
Value
73
Sentiment
77
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $9.50 · Bull $12.50 · Bear $6.30Analysis 2026-08-13; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $9.88
Why
Momentum9 · Δ7d +0.4
Value73 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment77 · Δ7d +19.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +19.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Continued automation-driven displacement of lower-complexity work
  • • Further GSV or revenue contraction before AI and SMB initiatives scale sufficiently
  • • The core marketplace remains under pressure: Q2 GSV and revenue declined year over year, net income and free cash flow also fell, and automation may continue to displace lower-complexity work.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-10

Q2 earnings reset the thesis: strong profitability but softer demand

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
9
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
-9.2
Value
73
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
77
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+19.3
Δ21d
+4.8
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 8.6 / Value 72.6 / Sentiment 77.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-13. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$12.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$6.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.02B
Beta
1.06
Shares Out
124.9M
P/E (TTM)
12.3
P/S (TTM)
3.45
P/FCF (TTM)
13.43
Rev YoY
-1.7%
EPS YoY
-15.9%
Gross Margin
+77.2%
Op Margin
+16.8%
Net Debt
-$305.23M
Current Ratio
1.42
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data