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UPWK

UpworkB
Nasdaq / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
AI-related work, Business Plus and enterprise offerings could lift spending per client while adjusted EBITDA remains resilient. Q2 adjusted EBITDA rose 12% year over year.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.2.
What can break
Management described a challenging operating environment and a shift of lower-complexity work toward automation. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10]
Momentum
39
Value
71
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $10.00 · Bull $12.50 · Bear $7.00Analysis 2026-10-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $9.88
Why
Momentum39 · Δ7d +25.3
Value71 · Δ7d -1.2
Sentiment53 · Δ7d -6.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Management described a challenging operating environment and a shift of lower-complexity work toward automation. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10]
  • • Q2 GSV declined 4% and active clients declined 4% year over year; continued volume erosion could overwhelm growth in AI-related categories. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-10]
  • • Q2 GSV, active clients and free cash flow declined year over year.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-02

November 2 Q3 results test the outlook

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
39
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+25.3
Δ21d
+32.0
Value
71
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.2
Δ21d
-1.6
Sentiment
53
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.1
Δ21d
-19.1
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 38.5 / Value 70.6 / Sentiment 52.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-25. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$10.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.18B
Beta
1.06
Shares Out
124.9M
P/E (TTM)
12.3
P/S (TTM)
3.45
P/FCF (TTM)
13.43
Rev YoY
-1.7%
EPS YoY
-15.9%
Gross Margin
+77.2%
Op Margin
+16.8%
Net Debt
-$305.23M
Current Ratio
1.42
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data