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UNH

UnitedHealth GroupB
NYSE / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 print materially improved the recovery case: adjusted EPS and revenue exceeded pre-print expectations, guidance was raised, Optum margins expanded, and post-print coverage reported UBS raising its target to $490 from $460 while maintaining Buy. Source: https://www.investing.com/news/analyst-ratings/ubs-raises-unitedhealth-stock-price-target-to-490-on-ma-strength-93CH-4798645
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
What can break
Execution risk remains across medical-cost management, Optum Health's value-based-care reset, AI investments and simplification initiatives.
Momentum
26
Value
61
Sentiment
78
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $455.00 · Bull $500.00 · Bear $350.00Analysis 2026-07-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $481.52
Why
Momentum26 · Δ7d +3.1
Value61 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment78 · Δ7d +2.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-08.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Execution risk remains across medical-cost management, Optum Health's value-based-care reset, AI investments and simplification initiatives.
  • • Management cited higher-than-expected cost trends in the commercial benefits business. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-17]
  • • The beat may overstate normalized earnings quality because Q2 benefited from $860 million of favorable prior-period development, while commercial cost trends remain elevated.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-16

Dated Q2 2026 beat-and-raise resets the earnings debate

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
26
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.1
Δ21d
-18.0
Value
61
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.4
Sentiment
78
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.7
Δ21d
+1.4
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 25.9 / Value 61.5 / Sentiment 78.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-21. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$500.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$455.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$350.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$355.11B
Beta
0.42
Shares Out
897.6M
P/E (TTM)
17.8
P/S (TTM)
0.71
P/FCF (TTM)
32.50
Rev YoY
+0.4%
EPS YoY
+61.7%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+4.8%
Net Debt
$58.64B
Current Ratio
0.78
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data