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UNH

UnitedHealth GroupC
NYSE / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The $4.69 adjusted EPS result exceeded a reported $4.14 pre-print expectation, while the 88.4% medical care ratio was below the 90.1% estimate cited by Zacks. Higher 2026 guidance supports a recovery case if pricing and cost control persist.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
What can break
2027 Medicare membership retention and margins following plan and benefit changes are not yet demonstrated. [#PR-2026-10-01]
Momentum
72
Value
60
Sentiment
45
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $400.00 · Bull $470.00 · Bear $330.00Analysis 2026-10-16; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-16 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $477.15
Why
Momentum72 · Δ7d +32.3
Value60 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment45 · Δ7d -4.2
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • 2027 Medicare membership retention and margins following plan and benefit changes are not yet demonstrated. [#PR-2026-10-01]
  • • Debt-to-capital was 41.7% at September 30, leaving balance-sheet discipline relevant to the recovery case. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-13]
  • • Favorable reserve development helped Q3, the medical care ratio rose from Q2's 86.7%, and Q3 cash conversion was lower than Q2's.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-13

Q3 beat and higher 2026 outlook face post-print scrutiny

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
72
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+32.3
Δ21d
+42.8
Value
60
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-1.3
Sentiment
45
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.2
Δ21d
-5.9
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 72.4 / Value 60.3 / Sentiment 45.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-16. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$470.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$400.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$330.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-16 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$368.64B
Beta
0.42
Shares Out
897.6M
P/E (TTM)
17.8
P/S (TTM)
0.71
P/FCF (TTM)
32.50
Rev YoY
+0.4%
EPS YoY
+61.7%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+4.8%
Net Debt
$58.64B
Current Ratio
0.78
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data