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UMBF

UMB FinancialC
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Post-earnings evidence tilts constructive: checked company materials show a clear quarter with operating EPS of $3.41, strong linked-quarter loan growth, better deposit mix, improved efficiency and low net charge-offs. Trusted market coverage available on April 29 indicated EPS and revenue came in above consensus, supporting the deterministic positive prior.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
Management said prolonged inflation, high interest rates and Middle East-related geopolitical stress could still create macro risk for borrowers and balance-sheet trends.
Momentum
41
Value
52
Sentiment
55
Setup hits (3d)
9 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $138.00 · Bull $148.00 · Bear $112.00Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-27 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $162.00
Why
Momentum41 · Δ7d +7.1
Value52 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment55 · Δ7d -3.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-24.
  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · AMC.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Management said prolonged inflation, high interest rates and Middle East-related geopolitical stress could still create macro risk for borrowers and balance-sheet trends.
  • • No formal forward guidance was evident in the checked earnings release or investor presentation, limiting near-term visibility despite the strong quarter.
  • • This still looks more like a monitoring-style positive than a clean rerating call because year-over-year comparisons still benefit from the HTLF acquisition base, no formal forward guidance was evident in the checked release or slides, and delayed post-print analyst target revisions were not clearly available as of April 29, 2026.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-27 · AMC

Q1 earnings beat with stronger revenue, margin and credit metrics

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
41
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.1
Δ21d
+9.9
Value
52
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-1.1
Sentiment
55
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.6
Δ21d
-11.3
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 41.1 / Value 51.9 / Sentiment 55.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$148.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$138.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$112.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$10.29B
Beta
0.79
Shares Out
75.95M
P/E (TTM)
13.6
P/S (TTM)
3.84
P/FCF (TTM)
13.16
Rev YoY
+6.2%
EPS YoY
+25.9%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+27.3%
Net Debt
-$3.9B
Current Ratio
0.37
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data