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UMBF

UMB FinancialC
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Post-earnings evidence tilts constructive: checked company materials show a clear quarter with operating EPS of $3.41, strong linked-quarter loan growth, better deposit mix, improved efficiency and low net charge-offs. Trusted market coverage available on April 29 indicated EPS and revenue came in above consensus, supporting the deterministic positive prior.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
12 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Management said prolonged inflation, high interest rates and Middle East-related geopolitical stress could still create macro risk for borrowers and balance-sheet trends.
Momentum
49
Value
56
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
12 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $138.00 · Bull $148.00 · Bear $112.00Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $168.75
Why
Momentum49 · Δ7d -12.8
Value56 · Δ7d +6.1
Sentiment61 · Δ7d +3.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 12 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Management said prolonged inflation, high interest rates and Middle East-related geopolitical stress could still create macro risk for borrowers and balance-sheet trends.
  • • No formal forward guidance was evident in the checked earnings release or investor presentation, limiting near-term visibility despite the strong quarter.
  • • This still looks more like a monitoring-style positive than a clean rerating call because year-over-year comparisons still benefit from the HTLF acquisition base, no formal forward guidance was evident in the checked release or slides, and delayed post-print analyst target revisions were not clearly available as of April 29, 2026.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-29

Q1 earnings beat with stronger revenue, margin and credit metrics

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
49
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-12.8
Δ21d
-9.9
Value
56
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.1
Δ21d
+6.1
Sentiment
61
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.5
Δ21d
+3.9
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 48.5 / Value 56.0 / Sentiment 60.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$148.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$138.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$112.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$11.54B
Beta
0.79
Shares Out
75.95M
P/E (TTM)
13.6
P/S (TTM)
3.84
P/FCF (TTM)
13.16
Rev YoY
+6.2%
EPS YoY
+25.9%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+27.3%
Net Debt
-$3.9B
Current Ratio
0.37
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data