UGP
Ultrapar ParticipacoesANYSE / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
At close
2026-07-20
Current thesis
The most supportive external signal available remains the company's own analyst-coverage page, which showed 8 Buy, 5 Neutral, and 0 Sell ratings, with target-price consensus updated on April 27, 2026 and several bank targets refreshed in late April, indicating constructive but not euphoric sell-side positioning [#IR-COVERAGE-2026-04-27].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Momentum
What changed
Momentum remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +38.6.
What can break
Execution risk on the R$2.6 billion 2026 investment plan, including whether expansion spending earns acceptable returns rather than diluting free-cash conversion.
Momentum
94
Value
61
Sentiment
38
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.50 · Bull $6.80 · Bear $4.70
Data freshness
Prices
As of 2026-07-20
Fundamentals
As of 2026-07-20 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-07-20 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-07-20
Investment thesis
As of 2026-07-20
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $6.56
Why
Momentum94 · Δ7d +38.6
Value61 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment38 · Δ7d -6.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Lead driver: Momentum · See technicals
Momentum
94
26% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+38.6
Δ21d
+81.5
Value
61
39% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-1.3
Sentiment
38
34% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.8
Δ21d
-24.3
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 94.3 / Value 61.0 / Sentiment 38.4
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-07-20
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-07-20
Market Cap
$6.85B
Beta
1.08
Shares Out
1.07B
P/E (TTM)
7.9
P/S (TTM)
0.17
P/FCF (TTM)
10.12
Rev YoY
+22.7%
EPS YoY
+199.8%
Gross Margin
+7.1%
Op Margin
+4.1%
Net Debt
$2.7B
Current Ratio
1.67
As of 2026-07-20 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology