B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
UGP
Ultrapar ParticipacoesDNYSE / Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The most supportive external signal available remains the company's own analyst-coverage page, which showed 8 Buy, 5 Neutral, and 0 Sell ratings, with target-price consensus updated on April 27, 2026 and several bank targets refreshed in late April, indicating constructive but not euphoric sell-side positioning [#IR-COVERAGE-2026-04-27].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.6.
What can break
Execution risk on the R$2.6 billion 2026 investment plan, including whether expansion spending earns acceptable returns rather than diluting free-cash conversion.
Momentum
95
Value
69
Sentiment
35
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.50 · Bull $6.80 · Bear $4.70Analysis 2026-05-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $6.82
Why
Momentum95 · Δ7d +2.7
Value69 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment35 · Δ7d -3.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Execution risk on the R$2.6 billion 2026 investment plan, including whether expansion spending earns acceptable returns rather than diluting free-cash conversion.
- • Fuel-market and regulatory conditions remain important swing factors; management highlighted prior irregularities in the sector and emphasized legal-competition and regulatory-security measures in the 4Q25 release.
- • That constructive coverage has to be weighed against a packet-level directional prior that is still neutral, very high uncertainty, and slightly negative expected returns across forward windows.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-30
4Q25 cash generation and leverage resilience still need to outweigh weaker reported profit
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
95
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.7
Δ21d
+11.8
Value
69
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+9.1
Sentiment
35
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.6
Δ21d
-9.2
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 95.5 / Value 69.4 / Sentiment 35.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-06. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$5.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$4.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$7.09B
Beta
1.08
Shares Out
1.07B
P/E (TTM)
7.9
P/S (TTM)
0.17
P/FCF (TTM)
10.12
Rev YoY
+36.8%
EPS YoY
+62.3%
Gross Margin
+8.4%
Op Margin
+5.0%
Net Debt
$2.7B
Current Ratio
1.64
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data