B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
UCTT
Ultra CleanDNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary-source evidence supports a cautious positive case: Q1 revenue grew 2.9% year over year to $533.7 million, services revenue grew 10.4%, and management cited improved semiconductor capital-equipment conditions and higher customer demand across regions [#10-Q-2026-04-29]. The April 28 earnings release also showed Q2 guidance above Q1 revenue, which is consistent with a still-improving demand backdrop.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -13.6.
What can break
CFO Sheri Savage plans to retire, and the successor search is ongoing, creating a near-term governance and transition risk [#8-K-2026-04-28].
Momentum
22
Value
45
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $80.00 · Bull $88.00 · Bear $62.00Analysis 2026-05-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $137.00
Why
Momentum22 · Δ7d +5.1
Value45 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment58 · Δ7d -13.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -13.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • CFO Sheri Savage plans to retire, and the successor search is ongoing, creating a near-term governance and transition risk [#8-K-2026-04-28].
- • Products gross margin fell to 14.0% from 14.6% year over year due to unfavorable product mix and geographic volume shifts [#10-Q-2026-04-29].
- • The bear case is execution-heavy: products gross margin fell to 14.0% from 14.6% because of unfavorable mix and geography, inventories rose by $91.0 million, operating cash flow was negative $33.3 million, and revenue concentration remains high with Lam Research at 36.7% and Applied Materials at 21.8% of revenue [#10-Q-2026-04-29].
Catalyst clock
2026-08-02
CFO succession remains a governance overhang until a replacement is named [#8-K-2026-04-28]
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
22
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+5.1
Δ21d
+2.3
Value
45
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-1.4
Sentiment
58
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-13.6
Δ21d
+12.0
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 22.4 / Value 45.1 / Sentiment 57.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$80.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$62.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.98B
Beta
2.00
Shares Out
45.28M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-22.0
P/S (TTM)
0.64
P/FCF (TTM)
78.70
Rev YoY
+24.3%
EPS YoY
-105.3%
Gross Margin
+15.8%
Op Margin
+2.8%
Net Debt
$341.9M
Current Ratio
2.73
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data