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UBCP

United BancorpB
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 diluted EPS rose 9.1% year over year to $0.36, while first-half net interest income grew 5.2%. Sustained low-cost funding, contained credit losses and eventual returns on infrastructure spending could support upside.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-05.
What can break
Deposit pricing or mix could reverse the first-half net-interest-margin improvement. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-24]
Momentum
67
Value
62
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $14.60 · Bull $17.50 · Bear $11.50Analysis 2026-10-02; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-11-05
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-29 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-29 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-02 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-29

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-29. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $20.00
Why
Momentum67 · Δ7d -
Value62 · Δ7d -1.2
Sentiment58 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-05.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Deposit pricing or mix could reverse the first-half net-interest-margin improvement. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-24]
  • • Infrastructure expenses are presently earnings-dilutive; management's 12–24-month payback expectation is unproven. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-24]
  • • A single commercial nonaccrual relationship drives much of the credit deterioration, and first-half noninterest expense rose about 10.2% year over year.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-05

Test whether lower-cost deposit growth sustains margin gains

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
67
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
62
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.2
Δ21d
+0.4
Sentiment
58
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 66.9 / Value 61.6 / Sentiment 57.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-02. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$17.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$14.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-02 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-29
Market Cap
$83.75M
Beta
0.40
Shares Out
5.74M
P/E (TTM)
11.2
P/S (TTM)
2.74
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-7.84
Rev YoY
+3.0%
EPS YoY
+9.3%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+16.0%
Net Debt
$121.89M
Current Ratio
0.14
As of 2026-10-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data