B+
Bull case
35%
Probability
Target price
$61.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TXNM
TXNM EnergyCNYSE / Utilities
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull view is mainly merger-spread plus regulated growth: the cash deal value is $61.25, the median analyst target in the packet is about $61.17, Q1 ongoing EPS improved year over year, and the updated capital plan/rate-base outlook still supports stand-alone earnings power if the deal drags.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.6.
What can break
PNM and TNMP still need favorable regulatory outcomes and cost recovery on a large capital program, including future review of major transmission and storage-related investments. [#10-Q-2026-05-01]
Momentum
60
Value
51
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $60.50 · Bull $61.25 · Bear $52.00Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $61.13
Why
Momentum60 · Δ7d -7.9
Value51 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment53 · Δ7d +5.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • PNM and TNMP still need favorable regulatory outcomes and cost recovery on a large capital program, including future review of major transmission and storage-related investments. [#10-Q-2026-05-01]
- • TXNM is not issuing 2026 earnings guidance while the Blackstone transaction is pending, reducing forward visibility after earnings. [#8-K-2026-05-01]
- • The bear view is that most upside is already captured near the deal price while regulatory and legal friction in New Mexico could delay or derail closing; meanwhile management withheld 2026 guidance during the pendency of the transaction, so stand-alone upside is hard to underwrite aggressively after the print.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-06
Merger approval path remains the main value driver
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
60
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.9
Δ21d
+24.5
Value
51
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+1.8
Sentiment
53
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.6
Δ21d
+0.7
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 59.9 / Value 50.5 / Sentiment 53.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
40%
Probability
Target price
$60.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.93B
Beta
0.17
Shares Out
103.05M
P/E (TTM)
34.5
P/S (TTM)
3.04
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-9.35
Rev YoY
+9.2%
EPS YoY
+185.6%
Gross Margin
+39.6%
Op Margin
+22.2%
Net Debt
$5.72B
Current Ratio
0.56
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data