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TXNM

TXNM EnergyC
NYSE / Utilities
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The bull view is mainly merger-spread plus regulated growth: the cash deal value is $61.25, the median analyst target in the packet is about $61.17, Q1 ongoing EPS improved year over year, and the updated capital plan/rate-base outlook still supports stand-alone earnings power if the deal drags.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29.
What can break
PNM and TNMP still need favorable regulatory outcomes and cost recovery on a large capital program, including future review of major transmission and storage-related investments. [#10-Q-2026-05-01]
Momentum
63
Value
49
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $60.50 · Bull $61.25 · Bear $52.00Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $61.17
Why
Momentum63 · Δ7d -5.2
Value49 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment52 · Δ7d +0.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • PNM and TNMP still need favorable regulatory outcomes and cost recovery on a large capital program, including future review of major transmission and storage-related investments. [#10-Q-2026-05-01]
  • • TXNM is not issuing 2026 earnings guidance while the Blackstone transaction is pending, reducing forward visibility after earnings. [#8-K-2026-05-01]
  • • The bear view is that most upside is already captured near the deal price while regulatory and legal friction in New Mexico could delay or derail closing; meanwhile management withheld 2026 guidance during the pendency of the transaction, so stand-alone upside is hard to underwrite aggressively after the print.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29

Merger approval path remains the main value driver

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
63
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-5.2
Δ21d
-8.6
Value
49
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
52
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.7
Δ21d
-6.8
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 62.9 / Value 48.8 / Sentiment 51.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
35%
Probability
Target price
$61.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
40%
Probability
Target price
$60.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$6.42B
Beta
0.17
Shares Out
110.13M
P/E (TTM)
34.5
P/S (TTM)
3.04
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-9.46
Rev YoY
+9.2%
EPS YoY
+185.6%
Gross Margin
+39.6%
Op Margin
+22.2%
Net Debt
$5.72B
Current Ratio
0.56
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data