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TX

TerniumC
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 beat was operationally supported rather than purely financial: steel shipments rose 4% sequentially, revenue per ton improved, and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 17%. The Q3 outlook remains constructive, particularly for Mexico.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Argentine manufacturing remains weak amid soft domestic demand and import competition.
Momentum
86
Value
56
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $55.00 · Bull $60.00 · Bear $44.00Analysis 2026-08-07; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $58.77
Why
Momentum86 · Δ7d -1.0
Value56 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment57 · Δ7d +0.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Argentine manufacturing remains weak amid soft domestic demand and import competition.
  • • Brazilian demand remains uneven and high steel imports continue to weigh on the market.
  • • Forward visibility remains cyclical.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-05

Strong Q2 2026 operating acceleration

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
86
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.0
Δ21d
-0.3
Value
56
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+1.6
Sentiment
57
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-9.5
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 86.4 / Value 56.0 / Sentiment 57.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-07. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$60.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$55.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$44.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$10.67B
Beta
1.27
Shares Out
196.31M
P/E (TTM)
13.1
P/S (TTM)
0.50
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-12.12
Rev YoY
+12.3%
EPS YoY
+63.0%
Gross Margin
+17.4%
Op Margin
+7.8%
Net Debt
-$525.75M
Current Ratio
2.58
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data