B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TVTX
Travere TherapeuticsDNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The core bullish case improved materially after the April 13, 2026 FDA approval expanded FILSPARI into FSGS, giving Travere a second rare-kidney commercial leg. Primary company materials also showed strong 2025 FILSPARI momentum, with full-year U.S.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
What can break
As of May 4, 2026, no verified Q1 2026 earnings release or 8-K was found in the checked primary sources, leaving revenue/EPS surprise, guidance, and revision signals unavailable [#IR-2026-04-27].
Momentum
32
Value
56
Sentiment
40
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $43.00 · Bull $52.00 · Bear $34.00Analysis 2026-05-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-11-03 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-11-04 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-11-04
Investment thesis
As of 2026-11-04
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-11-04. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $73.71
Why
Momentum32 · Δ7d -9.4
Value56 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment40 · Δ7d +3.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • As of May 4, 2026, no verified Q1 2026 earnings release or 8-K was found in the checked primary sources, leaving revenue/EPS surprise, guidance, and revision signals unavailable [#IR-2026-04-27].
- • FSGS commercialization may be slower than bulls expect because the April approval applies to patients without nephrotic syndrome, narrowing the treated population versus the broadest pre-approval hopes [#8-K-2026-04-14].
- • The stock already re-rated hard after the approval news, the approved FSGS label excludes nephrotic syndrome, and Q1 2026 earnings/guidance were not yet verified in checked primary sources as of May 4, 2026.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-04
Q1 2026 earnings release timing is confirmed, but results were not yet verified in checked primary sources
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
32
18% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-9.4
Δ21d
-14.9
Value
56
43% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
40
39% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.7
Δ21d
+5.2
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 31.8 / Value 55.7 / Sentiment 40.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$43.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-11-03
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-11-03
Market Cap
$4.66B
Beta
0.84
Shares Out
94.26M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-87.7
P/S (TTM)
7.82
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
49.60
Rev YoY
+48.2%
EPS YoY
+159.6%
Gross Margin
+87.9%
Op Margin
-6.8%
Net Debt
$5.94M
Current Ratio
4.05
As of 2026-11-04 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data