B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TVTX
Travere TherapeuticsDNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The core bullish case improved materially after the April 13, 2026 FDA approval expanded FILSPARI into FSGS, giving Travere a second rare-kidney commercial leg. Primary company materials also showed strong 2025 FILSPARI momentum, with full-year U.S.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
What can break
As of May 4, 2026, no verified Q1 2026 earnings release or 8-K was found in the checked primary sources, leaving revenue/EPS surprise, guidance, and revision signals unavailable [#IR-2026-04-27].
Momentum
87
Value
57
Sentiment
26
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $43.00 · Bull $52.00 · Bear $34.00Analysis 2026-05-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-18 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-18
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-18
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-18. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $74.21
Why
Momentum87 · Δ7d -1.8
Value57 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment26 · Δ7d +4.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • As of May 4, 2026, no verified Q1 2026 earnings release or 8-K was found in the checked primary sources, leaving revenue/EPS surprise, guidance, and revision signals unavailable [#IR-2026-04-27].
- • FSGS commercialization may be slower than bulls expect because the April approval applies to patients without nephrotic syndrome, narrowing the treated population versus the broadest pre-approval hopes [#8-K-2026-04-14].
- • The stock already re-rated hard after the approval news, the approved FSGS label excludes nephrotic syndrome, and Q1 2026 earnings/guidance were not yet verified in checked primary sources as of May 4, 2026.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-04
Q1 2026 earnings release timing is confirmed, but results were not yet verified in checked primary sources
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
87
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.8
Δ21d
+2.1
Value
57
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
26
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.4
Δ21d
+5.6
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 87.4 / Value 56.7 / Sentiment 25.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$43.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.99B
Beta
0.84
Shares Out
94.26M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-112.8
P/S (TTM)
7.82
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
63.78
Rev YoY
+48.2%
EPS YoY
+159.6%
Gross Margin
+87.9%
Op Margin
-6.8%
Net Debt
$5.94M
Current Ratio
4.05
As of 2026-09-18 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data