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TUSK

Mammoth Energy ServicesC
Nasdaq / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
A Q1 operating inflection, improved aviation utilization, cash-rich balance sheet, and upcoming Q2 confirmation could support a rerating from the $2.81 anchor price.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-30 · BMO.
What can break
Aviation utilization, lease deployment, and maintenance timing may not improve as expected.
Momentum
76
Value
33
Sentiment
64
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $2.90 · Bull $3.80 · Bear $2.00Analysis 2026-07-22; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-30 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $4.20
Why
Momentum76 · Δ7d -
Value33 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment64 · Δ7d -
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-30 · BMO.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Aviation utilization, lease deployment, and maintenance timing may not improve as expected.
  • • Low analyst coverage means limited estimate, target, and revision validation.
  • • The deterministic prior has reverted to neutral, and the recovery remains dependent on execution and confirmation in the next results.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-30 · BMO

Q2 2026 results and conference call

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
76
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
33
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
64
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 76.3 / Value 32.6 / Sentiment 64.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-22. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$3.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$2.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$128.5M
Beta
1.00
Shares Out
48.13M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-1.6
P/S (TTM)
0.63
P/FCF (TTM)
1.13
Rev YoY
+110.9%
EPS YoY
-98.5%
Gross Margin
-1.9%
Op Margin
-27.8%
Net Debt
-$130.19M
Current Ratio
1.93
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data