B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$280.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TSEM
Tower SemiconductorCNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The strongest company-source-supported bull argument is that Tower has moved beyond a generic AI narrative into dated commercial proof points: record Q2 guide and sequential-growth language in the May 13, 2026 6-K, a June 15 supply agreement with explicit commitment language, and a June 18 shipment milestone with Marvell. [#SEC-6K-2026-05-13] [#PR-2026-06-15] [#PR-2026-06-18]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Evidence quality remains low for a high-coverage semiconductor name because the current packet lacks a robust analyst-revision set, social coverage, and additional usable SEC context beyond the May 13 filing excerpt.
Momentum
72
Value
52
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $225.00 · Bull $280.00 · Bear $170.00Analysis 2026-07-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $314.88
Why
Momentum72 · Δ7d -7.9
Value52 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment58 · Δ7d -6.5
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -6.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Evidence quality remains low for a high-coverage semiconductor name because the current packet lacks a robust analyst-revision set, social coverage, and additional usable SEC context beyond the May 13 filing excerpt.
- • If August 4, 2026 results fail to validate the prior $455 million Q2 revenue guide or weaken the sequential-growth outlook, the near-term narrative can reset quickly.
- • The bear case is that conviction is still constrained by a thin primary-source set for a high-coverage name, with no official Q2 results yet, no trusted analyst-revision packet, and a long-range thesis still leaning heavily on silicon-photonics conversion and continued margin execution rather than diversified near-term proof.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-18
June photonics supply-chain and shipment milestones add commercialization evidence
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
72
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.9
Δ21d
+3.3
Value
52
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.7
Sentiment
58
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.5
Δ21d
+13.3
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 72.0 / Value 51.5 / Sentiment 58.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$225.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$170.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$29.76B
Beta
0.62
Shares Out
112.82M
P/E (TTM)
63.5
P/S (TTM)
9.72
P/FCF (TTM)
409.12
Rev YoY
+23.7%
EPS YoY
+93.0%
Gross Margin
+26.9%
Op Margin
+16.2%
Net Debt
-$990.39M
Current Ratio
4.91
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data