B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$205.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TSEM
Tower SemiconductorCNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 revenue rose 24% year over year to $460 million, and Tower guided Q3 revenue to $520 million. Its reported silicon-photonics run rate and the new Semtech capacity agreement offer company-specific growth evidence.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-24.
What can break
Capital spending could pressure free cash flow during expansion: Q2 net property-and-equipment investment exceeded operating cash flow. [#PR-2026-08-04]
Momentum
51
Value
54
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bearish
AI TargetsBase $170.00 · Bull $205.00 · Bear $125.00Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bearish
Target $312.91
Why
Momentum51 · Δ7d -13.1
Value54 · Δ7d +1.4
Sentiment56 · Δ7d -15.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bearish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bearish as of 2026-10-24.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Capital spending could pressure free cash flow during expansion: Q2 net property-and-equipment investment exceeded operating cash flow. [#PR-2026-08-04]
- • Q3 results may miss the $520 million revenue guide or Q4 guidance may temper the sequential-growth outlook. [#PR-2026-08-04]
- • The Q3 guide, Q4 silicon-photonics milestone and capacity expansion still require execution.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-02
November 2 results test the record Q3 revenue guide
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
51
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-13.1
Δ21d
-21.7
Value
54
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.4
Δ21d
+1.6
Sentiment
56
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-15.1
Δ21d
-1.0
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 50.5 / Value 53.7 / Sentiment 56.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$170.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$125.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$19.02B
Beta
0.62
Shares Out
113.52M
P/E (TTM)
63.5
P/S (TTM)
9.72
P/FCF (TTM)
409.12
Rev YoY
+23.7%
EPS YoY
+93.0%
Gross Margin
+26.9%
Op Margin
+16.2%
Net Debt
-$990.39M
Current Ratio
4.91
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data