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TSAT

TelesatD
Nasdaq / Telecommunication Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The constructive read is that Q1 did not break the Lightspeed build thesis: management maintained 2026 spending and GEO guidance, LEO backlog was about C$1.1B, and management cited robust government and defence interest alongside the Northwestel contract [#PR-2026-05-05-Q1].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -5.4.
What can break
Coverage is thin and comparable peers are loose, which lowers confidence in post-earnings price discovery and target-based valuation framing.
Momentum
56
Value
38
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $46.00 · Bull $65.00 · Bear $30.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $61.75
Why
Momentum56 · Δ7d -6.0
Value38 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment58 · Δ7d -5.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -5.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Coverage is thin and comparable peers are loose, which lowers confidence in post-earnings price discovery and target-based valuation framing.
  • • Creditor litigation tied to the 2025 equity distribution adds legal noise around the legacy GEO structure even as management says the claims are without merit [#PR-2026-01-21-Litigation].
  • • The bearish read is that the legacy GEO business is still shrinking quickly, Q1 losses widened partly on a non-cash goodwill impairment, and the refinancing process plus litigation around prior restructuring actions keep the capital structure overhang front and center [#PR-2026-05-05-Q1] [#PR-2026-01-21-Litigation].

Catalyst clock

2026-05-05

Q1 results kept GEO guidance intact but highlighted earnings pressure and refinancing focus

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
56
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.0
Δ21d
-35.6
Value
38
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-1.7
Sentiment
58
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.4
Δ21d
+2.5
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 55.8 / Value 37.8 / Sentiment 57.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$65.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$46.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$767.82M
Beta
2.06
Shares Out
15.22M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-6.6
P/S (TTM)
4.82
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-1.43
Rev YoY
-25.1%
EPS YoY
-862.1%
Gross Margin
+29.1%
Op Margin
+0.8%
Net Debt
$2.21B
Current Ratio
0.17
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data