B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$21.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TRC
Tejon RanchDNYSE / Real Estate Management & Development
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q2 print confirms improving profitability, cost discipline, leasing strength, and development progress. Fully leased industrial assets, Terra Vista lease-up, and new capacity could support a higher valuation if operating gains persist.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.7.
What can break
Demand, occupancy, and traffic gains may not persist after initial Terra Vista and casino-related momentum.
Momentum
24
Value
50
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $17.80 · Bull $21.50 · Bear $14.20Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $26.25
Why
Momentum24 · Δ7d +4.5
Value50 · Δ7d +0.3
Sentiment59 · Δ7d +2.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Demand, occupancy, and traffic gains may not persist after initial Terra Vista and casino-related momentum.
- • Execution, completion, and lease-up risk remain for Building 1B and other development projects.
- • Reported improvement was partly transaction-driven by the Dedeaux land sale and benefited from unusually lower corporate expenses versus the prior year.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-06
Q2 2026 earnings reset
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
24
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.5
Δ21d
+10.5
Value
50
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
59
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.7
Δ21d
+0.4
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 24.3 / Value 50.1 / Sentiment 58.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$17.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$14.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$447.75M
Beta
0.67
Shares Out
27.02M
P/E (TTM)
142.5
P/S (TTM)
9.12
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-17.17
Rev YoY
+71.7%
EPS YoY
-252.7%
Gross Margin
+16.1%
Op Margin
-0.9%
Net Debt
$69.05M
Current Ratio
2.92
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data