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TPCS

TechPrecisionF
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The constructive read is that Ranor mix improved, nine-month gross profit rose 72%, debt fell modestly, and a $46.0 million backlog offers operating leverage if execution stabilizes [#8-K-2026-02-17] [#10-Q-2026-02-17].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Customer concentration remains high: the top five customers were 79% of fiscal 2025 revenue and 73% of backlog was tied to four customers [#10-K-2025-07-30].
Momentum
72
Value
40
Sentiment
24
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.90 · Bull $5.20 · Bear $2.60Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Why
Momentum72 · Δ7d -
Value40 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment24 · Δ7d -
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Customer concentration remains high: the top five customers were 79% of fiscal 2025 revenue and 73% of backlog was tied to four customers [#10-K-2025-07-30].
  • • Execution risk remains centered on Stadco, where unfavorable mix hurt Q3 revenue and profitability [#8-K-2026-02-17].
  • • The cautious read is that Q3 revenue fell 7%, net loss widened to $1.5 million, Stadco remained loss-making, cash was only about $0.1 million, and financing/covenant risk is immediate [#8-K-2026-02-17] [#10-Q-2026-02-17].

Catalyst clock

2026-05-15

May 15 revolver renewal or alternative financing is the key near-term de-risking event

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
72
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
40
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-2.7
Sentiment
24
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 71.8 / Value 40.3 / Sentiment 23.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$3.90
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$62.93M
Beta
0.03
Shares Out
10.1M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-37.1
P/S (TTM)
1.49
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-19.74
Rev YoY
+23.3%
EPS YoY
-75.2%
Gross Margin
+16.0%
Op Margin
-1.9%
Net Debt
$10.12M
Current Ratio
1.00
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data