B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$92.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TNC
TennantBNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The constructive read is unchanged: Tennant already reset expectations after the ERP disruption, primary sources still support a first-half recovery framework, and the robotics roadmap gives the company a credible medium-term mix-improvement lever if Q1 results show operational stabilization [#10-K-2026-02-24].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.2.
What can break
As of May 4, 2026, the earnings release, guidance update, analyst revisions, and post-print market reaction were not confirmed from the sources checked, leaving an important evidence gap for a T+1 follow-up.
Momentum
17
Value
51
Sentiment
78
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $79.00 · Bull $92.00 · Bear $68.00Analysis 2026-05-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $87.75
Why
Momentum17 · Δ7d +4.3
Value51 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment78 · Δ7d -1.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • As of May 4, 2026, the earnings release, guidance update, analyst revisions, and post-print market reaction were not confirmed from the sources checked, leaving an important evidence gap for a T+1 follow-up.
- • ERP recovery may take longer than management's first-half 2026 normalization framework, extending order-entry, fulfillment, cost, and margin pressure [#10-K-2026-02-24].
- • The bearish read is that this scheduled follow-up still lacks a confirmed Q1 earnings release, so there is no verified beat/miss, no guidance revision, no estimate-reset evidence, and no post-print market reaction yet; with the deterministic prior negative, that missing confirmation argues for caution rather than anticipation.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-05
May 4 earnings release and May 5 call are the immediate swing event
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
17
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.3
Δ21d
+10.0
Value
51
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-3.1
Sentiment
78
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.2
Δ21d
-13.1
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 16.9 / Value 50.6 / Sentiment 78.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$79.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$68.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.15B
Beta
1.04
Shares Out
17.05M
P/E (TTM)
25.8
P/S (TTM)
1.10
P/FCF (TTM)
34.36
Rev YoY
+1.7%
EPS YoY
-59.1%
Gross Margin
+38.8%
Op Margin
+3.8%
Net Debt
$224.4M
Current Ratio
2.04
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data