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TKC

Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.SA
NYSE / Telecommunication Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Postpaid gains, lower churn and digital-services growth could support Turkcell's retained 2026 guidance of 5–7% real revenue growth and a 40–42% EBITDA margin if pricing flows through [#SEC-6K-2026-08-13]. Q2 filing.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
What can break
High capital spending on 5G and data centers may not generate adequate returns.
Momentum
35
Value
74
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $4.65 · Bull $5.70 · Bear $3.60Analysis 2026-10-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $7.77
Why
Momentum35 · Δ7d +0.7
Value74 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment59 · Δ7d -3.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • High capital spending on 5G and data centers may not generate adequate returns.
  • • Inflation-adjusted mobile ARPU recovery has not yet appeared in reported Q2 results.
  • • Q2 inflation-adjusted mobile ARPU fell 3.9% excluding M2M, while EBITDA margin declined to 41.8% from 43.5%.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-09

Q3 results test pricing and margins

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
35
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+0.7
Δ21d
-4.4
Value
74
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.3
Sentiment
59
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.5
Δ21d
-7.5
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 35.3 / Value 73.9 / Sentiment 59.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-25. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$5.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$4.65
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$3.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$3.99B
Beta
1.03
Shares Out
870.98M
P/E (TTM)
12.7
P/S (TTM)
0.95
P/FCF (TTM)
28.66
Rev YoY
+15.4%
EPS YoY
+5.2%
Gross Margin
+27.3%
Op Margin
+15.4%
Net Debt
$1.21B
Current Ratio
1.49
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data