B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TIC
TIC SolutionsDNYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Record combined backlog, 2.5% Q2 organic growth and reaffirmed annual guidance support a cautiously improved view if backlog converts and integration lifts margins. The deterministic prior turned positive, but the operating proof is still developing.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-29.
What can break
A $13.3 million Q2 net loss and $1.6 billion of term-loan debt leave margin improvement and deleveraging important execution tests. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Momentum
78
Value
44
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $9.50 · Bull $12.25 · Bear $6.50Analysis 2026-09-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-11-05 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-29 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-29 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-29
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-29
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-29. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $12.25
Why
Momentum78 · Δ7d +14.2
Value44 · Δ7d -1.5
Sentiment52 · Δ7d -6.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-29.
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-05 · BMO.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -6.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A $13.3 million Q2 net loss and $1.6 billion of term-loan debt leave margin improvement and deleveraging important execution tests. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
- • NV5 materially distorts year-over-year comparisons; Q2 combined revenue growth was 3.3% versus 86% reported growth. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
- • The headline 86% Q2 revenue increase was primarily acquisition-driven, while the company recorded a net loss and carried $1.6 billion of term-loan debt.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-05 · BMO
Delivery against reaffirmed 2026 outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
78
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+14.2
Δ21d
+27.2
Value
44
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.5
Δ21d
-1.4
Sentiment
52
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.8
Δ21d
-16.7
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 77.7 / Value 44.2 / Sentiment 51.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$6.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-29
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-29
Market Cap
$2.27B
Beta
-
Shares Out
220.56M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-17.4
P/S (TTM)
1.80
P/FCF (TTM)
69.02
Rev YoY
+86.1%
EPS YoY
+3105.3%
Gross Margin
+25.9%
Op Margin
-1.0%
Net Debt
$1.27B
Current Ratio
2.91
As of 2026-10-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data