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TGT

TargetA
NYSE / Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 report supports a credible operating inflection: traffic turned positive, digital and non-merchandise channels remained strong, and management raised underlying full-year expectations. Multiple analysts reportedly raised targets after the print, including targets in the $170-$185 range.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.1.
What can break
One-time tariff refunds inflated Q2 EPS and margins; guidance excludes future refunds.
Momentum
93
Value
60
Sentiment
72
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $169.00 · Bull $185.00 · Bear $145.00Analysis 2026-08-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $163.41
Why
Momentum93 · Δ7d -0.1
Value60 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment72 · Δ7d +7.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • One-time tariff refunds inflated Q2 EPS and margins; guidance excludes future refunds.
  • • Post-earnings analyst reaction was broadly constructive but not uniformly bullish, with valuation and future margins still cited as constraints.
  • • The headline EPS beat was materially aided by a one-time tariff refund, while apparel and home remain works in progress.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-19

Q2 beat-and-raise strengthens turnaround credibility

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
93
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+8.7
Value
60
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+2.7
Sentiment
72
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.1
Δ21d
+48.2
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 92.9 / Value 60.5 / Sentiment 71.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-24. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$185.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$169.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$145.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$68.59B
Beta
1.13
Shares Out
454.19M
P/E (TTM)
12.4
P/S (TTM)
0.44
P/FCF (TTM)
48.21
Rev YoY
+5.3%
EPS YoY
+100.3%
Gross Margin
+26.8%
Op Margin
+5.7%
Net Debt
$14.8B
Current Ratio
0.99
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data