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TGT

TargetA
NYSE / Consumer Staples Distribution & Retail
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 report supports a credible operating inflection: traffic turned positive, digital and non-merchandise channels remained strong, and management raised underlying full-year expectations. Multiple analysts reportedly raised targets after the print, including targets in the $170-$185 range.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.8.
What can break
One-time tariff refunds inflated Q2 EPS and margins; guidance excludes future refunds.
Momentum
47
Value
60
Sentiment
67
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $169.00 · Bull $185.00 · Bear $145.00Analysis 2026-08-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $165.23
Why
Momentum47 · Δ7d -27.8
Value60 · Δ7d +1.2
Sentiment67 · Δ7d +1.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • One-time tariff refunds inflated Q2 EPS and margins; guidance excludes future refunds.
  • • Post-earnings analyst reaction was broadly constructive but not uniformly bullish, with valuation and future margins still cited as constraints.
  • • The headline EPS beat was materially aided by a one-time tariff refund, while apparel and home remain works in progress.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-19

Q2 beat-and-raise strengthens turnaround credibility

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
47
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-27.8
Δ21d
-32.6
Value
60
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.2
Δ21d
+1.3
Sentiment
67
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.8
Δ21d
-7.3
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 46.5 / Value 60.2 / Sentiment 67.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-24. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$185.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$169.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$145.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$67.48B
Beta
1.13
Shares Out
454.3M
P/E (TTM)
12.4
P/S (TTM)
0.44
P/FCF (TTM)
48.21
Rev YoY
+5.3%
EPS YoY
+100.3%
Gross Margin
+26.8%
Op Margin
+5.7%
Net Debt
$14.8B
Current Ratio
0.99
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data