B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$48.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TGLS
TecnoglassCNYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Record Q2 revenue and backlog, geographic expansion, and pricing and automation benefits could restore profitability while sustaining growth. Management guided to 2026 revenue of $1.08 billion–$1.12 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $220 million–$230 million.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
What can break
Q2 gross margin contracted 7.4 percentage points year over year amid aluminum costs, peso appreciation and other costs. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Momentum
59
Value
57
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $38.00 · Bull $48.00 · Bear $26.00Analysis 2026-09-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $56.00
Why
Momentum59 · Δ7d +31.6
Value57 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment53 · Δ7d -0.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Q2 gross margin contracted 7.4 percentage points year over year amid aluminum costs, peso appreciation and other costs. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
- • Q2 operating cash flow was about $4.4 million against $35.4 million of capital expenditure, making cash conversion an important check. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
- • Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 17.5% from 31.2% a year earlier.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
Year-end automation milestone
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
59
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+31.6
Δ21d
+39.3
Value
57
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
53
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.7
Δ21d
-19.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 59.3 / Value 56.8 / Sentiment 53.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-29. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$38.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.7B
Beta
1.71
Shares Out
44.36M
P/E (TTM)
13.5
P/S (TTM)
2.48
P/FCF (TTM)
75.25
Rev YoY
+15.6%
EPS YoY
-41.0%
Gross Margin
+38.7%
Op Margin
+18.1%
Net Debt
$67.58M
Current Ratio
1.86
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data