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TALO

Talos EnergyB
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 execution exceeded guidance, adjusted free cash flow was $231.6 million, and standalone 2026 production guidance was raised. The Gulf of America acquisition, Mexico Block 29 farm-in, and Honduras position add potential portfolio scale and optionality [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Execution and geological risk across the Daenerys appraisal, Monument development, Mexico Block 29, and Honduras exploration initiatives.
Momentum
80
Value
69
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
1 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $15.50 · Bull $20.00 · Bear $11.50Analysis 2026-08-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $19.82
Why
Momentum80 · Δ7d -2.1
Value69 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment57 · Δ7d +6.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 1 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Execution and geological risk across the Daenerys appraisal, Monument development, Mexico Block 29, and Honduras exploration initiatives.
  • • Forward production and cash-flow outcomes may not sustain the strong Q2 run rate.
  • • The deterministic prior is negative across 5-day through 120-day horizons.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-04

Q2 execution beat and raised guidance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
80
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-2.1
Δ21d
+2.0
Value
69
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
57
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.0
Δ21d
-3.5
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 79.8 / Value 68.8 / Sentiment 57.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$20.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.74B
Beta
0.58
Shares Out
166.97M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-5.8
P/S (TTM)
0.97
P/FCF (TTM)
3.19
Rev YoY
+56.5%
EPS YoY
-184.0%
Gross Margin
+15.8%
Op Margin
+6.3%
Net Debt
$1.05B
Current Ratio
1.61
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data