B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$20.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
TALO
Talos EnergyBNYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 execution exceeded guidance, adjusted free cash flow was $231.6 million, and standalone 2026 production guidance was raised. The Gulf of America acquisition, Mexico Block 29 farm-in, and Honduras position add potential portfolio scale and optionality [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
What can break
Execution and geological risk across the Daenerys appraisal, Monument development, Mexico Block 29, and Honduras exploration initiatives.
Momentum
75
Value
68
Sentiment
48
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $15.50 · Bull $20.00 · Bear $11.50Analysis 2026-08-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $21.27
Why
Momentum75 · Δ7d +3.9
Value68 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment48 · Δ7d -2.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Execution and geological risk across the Daenerys appraisal, Monument development, Mexico Block 29, and Honduras exploration initiatives.
- • Forward production and cash-flow outcomes may not sustain the strong Q2 run rate.
- • The deterministic prior is negative across 5-day through 120-day horizons.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-04
Q2 execution beat and raised guidance
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
75
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.9
Δ21d
+3.1
Value
68
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
48
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.8
Δ21d
-14.8
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 74.7 / Value 68.0 / Sentiment 48.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$3.07B
Beta
0.58
Shares Out
166.97M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-6.5
P/S (TTM)
0.97
P/FCF (TTM)
3.19
Rev YoY
+56.5%
EPS YoY
-184.0%
Gross Margin
+15.8%
Op Margin
+6.3%
Net Debt
$1.05B
Current Ratio
1.61
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data