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TAL

TAL Education GroupA
NYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Fiscal Q1 revenue rose 31.9% year over year to $758.4 million, gross margin rose to 57.8% from 54.9%, and operating income reached $137.2 million. Sustaining those operating gains in Q2 could support a higher valuation.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28.
What can break
China education-sector regulatory and execution exposure remains a risk, but the checked sources do not quantify a current regulatory change.
Momentum
72
Value
58
Sentiment
69
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $11.50 · Bull $15.00 · Bear $8.50Analysis 2026-10-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $16.75
Why
Momentum72 · Δ7d -16.0
Value58 · Δ7d +0.9
Sentiment69 · Δ7d +6.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • China education-sector regulatory and execution exposure remains a risk, but the checked sources do not quantify a current regulatory change.
  • • Fiscal Q2 operating results and forward guidance remain unavailable until the October 29 release.
  • • Fiscal Q1's $408.0 million net income included $405.2 million of other income, mainly driven by investment fair-value fluctuations; it should not be extrapolated as recurring operating profit.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-28

Fiscal Q2 2027 results on October 29

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
72
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-16.0
Δ21d
-19.6
Value
58
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.9
Δ21d
+11.4
Sentiment
69
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.4
Δ21d
-0.9
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 71.8 / Value 58.4 / Sentiment 69.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-21. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$8.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$4.93B
Beta
0.06
Shares Out
334.09M
P/E (TTM)
39.3
P/S (TTM)
2.63
P/FCF (TTM)
15.82
Rev YoY
+31.7%
EPS YoY
+1333.3%
Gross Margin
+56.0%
Op Margin
+12.4%
Net Debt
-$3.08B
Current Ratio
1.69
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data