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SW

Smurfit WestrockA
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Strong paper demand, full mills, pricing actions, regional outperformance, and approximately $1.3 billion of expected Q3 adjusted EBITDA could support a recovery toward the packet's $55.82 median analyst target. Target count and post-print revisions are unavailable, so this remains tentative.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · BMO.
What can break
Demand and supply-demand conditions could weaken from the currently favorable backdrop.
Momentum
40
Value
57
Sentiment
70
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $52.00 · Bull $58.00 · Bear $39.00Analysis 2026-08-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $56.57
Why
Momentum40 · Δ7d +1.8
Value57 · Δ7d -0.4
Sentiment70 · Δ7d -1.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28 · BMO.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Demand and supply-demand conditions could weaken from the currently favorable backdrop.
  • • FY26 adjusted EBITDA guidance was reduced to $4.9-$5.1 billion from $5.0-$5.3 billion. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
  • • The Q2 margin decline, freight pressure, guidance reduction, and lagged cost pass-through could delay earnings recovery.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-28 · BMO

Q2 2026 results were operationally mixed

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
40
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.8
Δ21d
-11.3
Value
57
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-0.6
Sentiment
70
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.2
Δ21d
-9.9
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 40.2 / Value 56.5 / Sentiment 69.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$58.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$39.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$21.88B
Beta
1.00
Shares Out
524.52M
P/E (TTM)
28.2
P/S (TTM)
0.67
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
204.51
Rev YoY
+1.1%
EPS YoY
-415.7%
Gross Margin
+17.9%
Op Margin
+5.8%
Net Debt
$13.98B
Current Ratio
1.45
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data