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SW

Smurfit WestrockA
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Strong paper demand, full mills, pricing actions, regional outperformance, and approximately $1.3 billion of expected Q3 adjusted EBITDA could support a recovery toward the packet's $55.82 median analyst target. Target count and post-print revisions are unavailable, so this remains tentative.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Demand and supply-demand conditions could weaken from the currently favorable backdrop.
Momentum
50
Value
57
Sentiment
77
Setup hits (3d)
2 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $52.00 · Bull $58.00 · Bear $39.00Analysis 2026-08-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $56.84
Why
Momentum50 · Δ7d -6.5
Value57 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment77 · Δ7d +10.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 2 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +10.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Demand and supply-demand conditions could weaken from the currently favorable backdrop.
  • • FY26 adjusted EBITDA guidance was reduced to $4.9-$5.1 billion from $5.0-$5.3 billion. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-29]
  • • The Q2 margin decline, freight pressure, guidance reduction, and lagged cost pass-through could delay earnings recovery.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-29

Q2 2026 results were operationally mixed

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
50
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-6.5
Δ21d
-27.9
Value
57
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-2.0
Sentiment
77
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+10.6
Δ21d
+11.3
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 50.0 / Value 56.8 / Sentiment 77.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$58.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$39.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$25B
Beta
1.00
Shares Out
524.52M
P/E (TTM)
28.2
P/S (TTM)
0.67
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
233.63
Rev YoY
+1.1%
EPS YoY
-415.7%
Gross Margin
+17.9%
Op Margin
+5.8%
Net Debt
$13.98B
Current Ratio
1.45
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data