RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

STX

SeagateA
Nasdaq / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
The Q4 beat, strong FY27 Q1 guidance, record FY2026 free cash flow, debt reduction, and management's durable AI/cloud storage demand commentary support a constructive medium-term thesis [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · AMC.
What can break
Cloud and hyperscaler concentration could make demand, pricing, and product mix vulnerable to customer spending changes.
Momentum
20
Value
49
Sentiment
82
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $950.00 · Bull $1,100.00 · Bear $680.00Analysis 2026-07-31; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-27 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $1,154.23
Why
Momentum20 · Δ7d -18.6
Value49 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment82 · Δ7d 0.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-27 · AMC.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Cloud and hyperscaler concentration could make demand, pricing, and product mix vulnerable to customer spending changes.
  • • Failure to deliver the $4.1 billion revenue and $7.30 non-GAAP EPS FY27 Q1 outlook.
  • • The stock requires continued execution against an elevated outlook.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-27 · AMC

Strong Q4 beat and FY27 Q1 guide

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
20
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-18.6
Δ21d
-66.7
Value
49
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.7
Sentiment
82
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+23.3
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 20.1 / Value 48.6 / Sentiment 81.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-31. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$1,100.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$950.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$680.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$143.37B
Beta
1.63
Shares Out
227.39M
P/E (TTM)
37.2
P/S (TTM)
6.61
P/FCF (TTM)
103.18
Rev YoY
+48.5%
EPS YoY
+149.2%
Gross Margin
+45.6%
Op Margin
+34.7%
Net Debt
$2.19B
Current Ratio
1.67
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data