B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$48.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
STOK
Stoke TherapeuticsDNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Completed EMPEROR enrollment, the planned regulatory path, and approximately $420 million of cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities after a subsequent ATM sale support progress toward a potential early-2028 U.S. launch [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.1.
What can break
EMPEROR's Q3 2027 readout is binary; enrollment completion and open-label observations do not establish Phase 3 efficacy [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03].
Momentum
21
Value
41
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $26.00 · Bull $48.00 · Bear $12.00Analysis 2026-09-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $46.46
Why
Momentum21 · Δ7d +8.2
Value41 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment63 · Δ7d -3.1
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -3.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • EMPEROR's Q3 2027 readout is binary; enrollment completion and open-label observations do not establish Phase 3 efficacy [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03].
- • STK-002 remains in Phase 1 dose escalation, limiting its ability to offset a zorevunersen setback [#SEC-8K-2026-08-03].
- • Value remains concentrated in an unapproved Dravet program.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
FDA pre-NDA meeting for zorevunersen
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
21
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.2
Δ21d
+9.7
Value
41
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
63
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.1
Δ21d
-7.3
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 20.9 / Value 40.6 / Sentiment 63.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-24. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.62B
Beta
1.10
Shares Out
64.53M
P/E (TTM)
49.3
P/S (TTM)
9.04
P/FCF (TTM)
35.50
Rev YoY
-32.5%
EPS YoY
+132.0%
Gross Margin
+84.7%
Op Margin
-809.7%
Net Debt
-$281.02M
Current Ratio
7.69
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data