B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$235.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
STLD
Steel DynamicsDNasdaq / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that Q1 2026 showed more than a cyclical bounce: record shipments, better steel pricing, stronger lead times, and a fabrication backlog extending into October 2026 suggest genuine demand support, while the aluminum platform now has visible commissioning milestones that could reduce startup drag over the next two quarters [#PR-2026-04-20].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
What can break
Aluminum startup execution remains a real swing factor after Q1 included a temporary operational pause, inventory write-offs, and a $65 million startup/construction loss [#PR-2026-04-20].
Momentum
27
Value
51
Sentiment
52
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $205.00 · Bull $235.00 · Bear $175.00Analysis 2026-04-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $276.08
Why
Momentum27 · Δ7d -11.7
Value51 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment52 · Δ7d +5.2
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +5.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Aluminum startup execution remains a real swing factor after Q1 included a temporary operational pause, inventory write-offs, and a $65 million startup/construction loss [#PR-2026-04-20].
- • Board turnover remains a governance footnote after the March 27, 2026 8-K disclosed a director departure, even though the filing stated it was not due to disagreement with the company [#8-K-2026-03-27].
- • The bear case is that much of the good steel backdrop is already reflected in the stock, aluminum is still loss-making and experienced a temporary operational pause with inventory write-offs in January, and STLD's anchor price of $209.35 already sits above the packet's median analyst target of $194.4.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-15
Post-Q1 repricing around stronger steel spreads and backlog
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
27
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-11.7
Δ21d
-43.9
Value
51
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+2.2
Sentiment
52
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.2
Δ21d
-4.7
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 26.8 / Value 51.0 / Sentiment 52.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-21. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$205.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$175.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$37B
Beta
1.47
Shares Out
143.33M
P/E (TTM)
22.8
P/S (TTM)
1.42
P/FCF (TTM)
1115.65
Rev YoY
+33.4%
EPS YoY
+84.2%
Gross Margin
+14.5%
Op Margin
+10.0%
Net Debt
$3.61B
Current Ratio
3.18
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data