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STLD

Steel DynamicsB
Nasdaq / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Record steel shipments, wider steel spreads, a fabrication backlog extending into Q2 2027, and improving aluminum economics support upside if execution continues [#SEC-8K-2026-10-20]. Goldman Sachs reportedly reaffirmed Buy and a $299 target after Q3.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
12 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
What can break
Aluminum yield and quality issues could delay volume growth despite management's reported coolant fix [#SEC-8K-2026-10-20].
Momentum
87
Value
51
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
12 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $255.00 · Bull $295.00 · Bear $205.00Analysis 2026-10-22; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $278.00
Why
Momentum87 · Δ7d +7.7
Value51 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment59 · Δ7d +20.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 12 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-26.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +20.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Aluminum yield and quality issues could delay volume growth despite management's reported coolant fix [#SEC-8K-2026-10-20].
  • • Fabrication's higher steel input costs could limit margin conversion from its larger backlog [#SEC-8K-2026-10-20].
  • • The EPS miss tempers the strong operating headline.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-20

Post-Q3 earnings reassessment

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
87
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+7.7
Δ21d
+20.3
Value
51
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
59
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+20.7
Δ21d
+11.2
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 86.5 / Value 50.8 / Sentiment 59.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-22. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$295.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$255.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$205.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$33.78B
Beta
1.47
Shares Out
142.22M
P/E (TTM)
22.8
P/S (TTM)
1.42
P/FCF (TTM)
1115.65
Rev YoY
+33.4%
EPS YoY
+84.2%
Gross Margin
+14.5%
Op Margin
+10.0%
Net Debt
$3.61B
Current Ratio
3.18
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data