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SasolD
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The best constructive read is that Sasol has moved from pure balance-sheet repair to early operating stabilization: H1 FY26 delivered positive free cash flow for the first time in four years, while the April nine-month update raised fuel sales volume guidance and reduced capex. If July metrics confirm that fuels momentum and capital discipline are sticking, the stock could hold or modestly rerate from a low-expectations base.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
5 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
H1 FY26 gross margin and adjusted EBITDA were down year over year despite positive free cash flow, showing that chemicals pricing and input-cost pressure still matter. [#IR-H1FY26-2026-02-23]
Momentum
70
Value
61
Sentiment
45
Setup hits (3d)
5 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $10.00 · Bull $12.50 · Bear $7.50Analysis 2026-06-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-09-01 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $14.45
Why
Momentum70 · Δ7d +17.7
Value61 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment45 · Δ7d -0.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • 5 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • H1 FY26 gross margin and adjusted EBITDA were down year over year despite positive free cash flow, showing that chemicals pricing and input-cost pressure still matter. [#IR-H1FY26-2026-02-23]
  • • Mozambique flooding and Petroleum Production Agreement well-availability constraints forced lower FY26 gas guidance, creating risk of another downgrade if recovery is slow. [#IR-BPM-2026-04-22]
  • • The cautious read is that the repair is still incomplete.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-21

July 21 Q4 FY26 business metrics must confirm the April mixed guidance reset is holding

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
70
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+17.7
Δ21d
+13.5
Value
61
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
45
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-0.8
Δ21d
-6.0
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 70.0 / Value 60.9 / Sentiment 44.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-18. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$12.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$10.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$7.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-09-01
Market Cap
$7.45B
Beta
0.44
Shares Out
637.64M
P/E (TTM)
10.2
P/S (TTM)
0.28
P/FCF (TTM)
5.38
Rev YoY
-8.5%
EPS YoY
+104.0%
Gross Margin
+27.3%
Op Margin
+17.3%
Net Debt
$4.16B
Current Ratio
1.66
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data