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SSD

Simpson ManufacturingA
NYSE / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Primary materials support a quality-and-discipline thesis: the April 2026 investor presentation emphasizes high fill rates, broad specification-driven product breadth, less than 1x leverage, continuing facility investment and active capital returns, while the deterministic prior is neutral rather than outright negative. If second-quarter execution confirms the April framework, the stock can work toward the packet's $213 median analyst target.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.7.
What can break
ETANCO integration remains a management priority, and debt repayment tied to that acquisition still competes with other uses of cash [#IR-2026-04-27].
Momentum
41
Value
63
Sentiment
80
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $198.00 · Bull $220.00 · Bear $168.00Analysis 2026-05-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $219.00
Why
Momentum41 · Δ7d +3.1
Value63 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment80 · Δ7d +1.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • ETANCO integration remains a management priority, and debt repayment tied to that acquisition still competes with other uses of cash [#IR-2026-04-27].
  • • If second-quarter results do not support the April 27 operating-margin and capital-spend framework, the stock likely de-rates because the current thesis leans on steady execution rather than a major new demand inflection [#8-K-2026-04-27].
  • • Catalyst density is still light and the deterministic prior is mildly negative across 20-120 day horizons.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-28

Execution against the April 27 earnings update and 2026 outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
41
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+3.1
Δ21d
+0.6
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+2.4
Sentiment
80
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.7
Δ21d
+11.0
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 41.0 / Value 62.8 / Sentiment 79.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-06. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$220.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$198.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$168.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$8.03B
Beta
1.37
Shares Out
40.98M
P/E (TTM)
20.6
P/S (TTM)
3.03
P/FCF (TTM)
36.60
Rev YoY
+6.3%
EPS YoY
+25.0%
Gross Margin
+45.2%
Op Margin
+19.8%
Net Debt
$103.44M
Current Ratio
3.29
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data