B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$26.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SRPT
Sarepta TherapeuticsCNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The September ELEVIDYS findings support the ambulatory evidence base, while positive DM1 or FSHD data could broaden the pipeline thesis. Sarepta reported $328.7 million of Q2 net product revenue and GAAP operating profit.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -6.3.
What can break
DM1 and FSHD readouts may disappoint on efficacy or safety, or miss the stated second-half 2026 timetable. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/873303/000119312526335056/srpt-ex99_1.htm
Momentum
44
Value
51
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $19.00 · Bull $26.00 · Bear $9.00Analysis 2026-10-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $21.64
Why
Momentum44 · Δ7d +4.6
Value51 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment57 · Δ7d -6.3
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -6.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • DM1 and FSHD readouts may disappoint on efficacy or safety, or miss the stated second-half 2026 timetable. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/873303/000119312526335056/srpt-ex99_1.htm
- • ELEVIDYS carries a boxed warning for acute serious liver injury and acute liver failure; fatal outcomes have occurred in non-ambulatory patients. [#PR-2026-09-30] https://investorrelations.sarepta.com/node/25481
- • Q2 total revenue fell 34% year over year, and 2026 net product revenue guidance was narrowed to $1.2–$1.3 billion from $1.2–$1.4 billion.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-31
Market assessment of ELEVIDYS data
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
44
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+4.6
Δ21d
-14.9
Value
51
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.4
Sentiment
57
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.3
Δ21d
-11.2
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 44.4 / Value 50.9 / Sentiment 56.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$19.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$9.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.87B
Beta
0.39
Shares Out
105.63M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-2.5
P/S (TTM)
0.91
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
20.63
Rev YoY
-34.3%
EPS YoY
-102.5%
Gross Margin
+56.6%
Op Margin
-3.2%
Net Debt
$99.9M
Current Ratio
4.42
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data