B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SPSC
SPS CommerceDNasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q2 print demonstrated execution above prior revenue and EBITDA guidance, with 19% Adjusted EBITDA growth, continued upsell/cross-sell momentum, stronger FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA and non-GAAP EPS guidance, and a potential AI growth option through MAX. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
What can break
GAAP earnings were materially lower year over year despite stronger non-GAAP profitability.
Momentum
76
Value
59
Sentiment
35
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $75.00 · Bull $88.00 · Bear $61.00Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $78.36
Why
Momentum76 · Δ7d -11.3
Value59 · Δ7d -0.6
Sentiment35 · Δ7d -6.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · AMC.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • GAAP earnings were materially lower year over year despite stronger non-GAAP profitability.
- • Lower FY2026 revenue guidance and the ongoing effect of the 3P divestiture could keep reported growth subdued.
- • The revenue outlook now implies only 5%-6% FY2026 growth, GAAP diluted EPS fell to $0.19 from $0.52 year over year, and the divestiture removes customers and near-term revenue.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-29 · AMC
Q2 beat offset by lower top-line outlook
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
76
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-11.3
Δ21d
-22.5
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
-0.9
Sentiment
35
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.4
Δ21d
-18.3
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 76.1 / Value 59.2 / Sentiment 34.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$75.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$61.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$3.33B
Beta
0.56
Shares Out
36M
P/E (TTM)
40.5
P/S (TTM)
4.67
P/FCF (TTM)
22.98
Rev YoY
+5.6%
EPS YoY
-63.8%
Gross Margin
+64.9%
Op Margin
+15.8%
Net Debt
-$144.16M
Current Ratio
1.82
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data