B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$88.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SPSC
SPS CommerceBNasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q2 print demonstrated execution above prior revenue and EBITDA guidance, with 19% Adjusted EBITDA growth, continued upsell/cross-sell momentum, stronger FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA and non-GAAP EPS guidance, and a potential AI growth option through MAX. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +11.0.
What can break
GAAP earnings were materially lower year over year despite stronger non-GAAP profitability.
Momentum
86
Value
62
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $75.00 · Bull $88.00 · Bear $61.00Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $75.45
Why
Momentum86 · Δ7d +0.9
Value62 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment58 · Δ7d +11.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +11.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • GAAP earnings were materially lower year over year despite stronger non-GAAP profitability.
- • Lower FY2026 revenue guidance and the ongoing effect of the 3P divestiture could keep reported growth subdued.
- • The revenue outlook now implies only 5%-6% FY2026 growth, GAAP diluted EPS fell to $0.19 from $0.52 year over year, and the divestiture removes customers and near-term revenue.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-04
Q2 beat offset by lower top-line outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
86
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.9
Δ21d
-4.3
Value
62
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+1.0
Sentiment
58
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+11.0
Δ21d
-0.5
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 86.0 / Value 61.8 / Sentiment 58.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$75.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$61.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.74B
Beta
0.56
Shares Out
36M
P/E (TTM)
40.5
P/S (TTM)
4.67
P/FCF (TTM)
22.98
Rev YoY
+5.6%
EPS YoY
-63.8%
Gross Margin
+64.9%
Op Margin
+15.8%
Net Debt
-$144.16M
Current Ratio
1.82
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data