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SPHR

Sphere EntertainmentB
NYSE / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The July quarter showed Sphere-segment revenue up 29% year over year and segment adjusted operating income up 60%. New content and eventual additional venues could broaden earnings beyond one production.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -6.4.
What can break
Abu Dhabi construction and new-content launches carry timing, cost and demand-execution risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
Momentum
7
Value
57
Sentiment
65
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $125.00 · Bull $155.00 · Bear $80.00Analysis 2026-10-06; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-06 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $163.62
Why
Momentum7 · Δ7d +1.2
Value57 · Δ7d -0.7
Sentiment65 · Δ7d -6.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -6.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Abu Dhabi construction and new-content launches carry timing, cost and demand-execution risk. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
  • • MSG Networks revenue fell 18% year over year in the July-reported quarter, while consolidated adjusted operating income fell 17%. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-30]
  • • Craig-Hallum cut SPHR to Hold from Buy and reduced its target to $132 from $170 on October 5, citing weaker Wizard of Oz demand.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Wizard of Oz demand after the downgrade

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
7
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.2
Δ21d
-36.0
Value
57
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.7
Δ21d
+0.9
Sentiment
65
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.4
Δ21d
-7.7
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 7.1 / Value 57.4 / Sentiment 65.2

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-06. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$155.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$125.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$80.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-06 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$3.91B
Beta
1.69
Shares Out
35.91M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
117.6
P/S (TTM)
2.91
P/FCF (TTM)
1433.28
Rev YoY
+11.0%
EPS YoY
-131.7%
Gross Margin
+29.4%
Op Margin
-1.5%
Net Debt
$440.19M
Current Ratio
1.21
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data