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SPHR

Sphere EntertainmentC
NYSE / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Primary-source earnings support a cautious positive prior: Sphere segment growth and margin inflection suggest the Las Vegas asset is moving from concept risk toward more repeatable monetization [#8-K-2026-05-05]. Recent news flow also included positive post-print coverage, but the packet does not provide a full analyst-revision set, so this should be treated as early confirmation rather than broad consensus.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.4.
What can break
Liquidity is better but not fully comfortable relative to debt load; the company had $629.1 million of unrestricted cash and $810.4 million of debt as of March 31, 2026, and management says no assurance can be provided if Sphere cash-flow assumptions weaken [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
Momentum
40
Value
54
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $142.00 · Bull $165.00 · Bear $105.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $181.31
Why
Momentum40 · Δ7d -35.2
Value54 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment60 · Δ7d +2.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Liquidity is better but not fully comfortable relative to debt load; the company had $629.1 million of unrestricted cash and $810.4 million of debt as of March 31, 2026, and management says no assurance can be provided if Sphere cash-flow assumptions weaken [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
  • • MSG Networks remains a drag risk through subscriber attrition, distributor negotiations, and media-rights obligations, even after the June 2025 restructuring and lower rights fees [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
  • • The setup is still not cleanly de-risked because consolidated results include a structurally pressured MSG Networks business, and management explicitly says liquidity depends on sustained Sphere cash generation.

Catalyst clock

2026-05-05

Q1 2026 earnings materially improved Sphere profitability

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
40
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-35.2
Δ21d
-50.5
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+5.2
Sentiment
60
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.4
Δ21d
+14.2
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 40.0 / Value 54.0 / Sentiment 60.3

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$165.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
0%
Probability
Target price
$142.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$105.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$6.16B
Beta
1.69
Shares Out
35.91M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
185.3
P/S (TTM)
2.91
P/FCF (TTM)
1433.28
Rev YoY
+11.0%
EPS YoY
-131.7%
Gross Margin
+29.4%
Op Margin
-1.5%
Net Debt
$440.19M
Current Ratio
1.21
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data