B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$72.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
SON
Sonoco ProductsANYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q2 print improved the operating narrative: Industrial Paper Packaging exceeded expectations, URB utilization was strong, adjusted EPS increased, and guidance was maintained [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22]. External coverage cited adjusted EPS consensus near $1.49 versus reported $1.51, while revenue was approximately in line.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +21.1.
What can break
Adjusted EPS guidance remains weighted toward the low end of the $5.80-$6.20 range.
Momentum
30
Value
62
Sentiment
82
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $63.00 · Bull $72.00 · Bear $48.00Analysis 2026-07-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $62.89
Why
Momentum30 · Δ7d -24.2
Value62 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment82 · Δ7d +21.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +21.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Adjusted EPS guidance remains weighted toward the low end of the $5.80-$6.20 range.
- • Consumer Packaging volume declined, particularly in metal aerosol cans and adhesive and sealant tubes.
- • Sales and adjusted EBITDA remained below the prior-year period, Consumer Packaging volumes were soft, and management continues to expect adjusted EPS near the low end of its range.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-31
Q2 results and reaffirmed guidance support the near-term setup
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
30
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-24.2
Δ21d
-39.8
Value
62
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+5.1
Sentiment
82
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+21.1
Δ21d
+24.4
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 30.3 / Value 62.1 / Sentiment 81.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-27. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$63.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$48.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.61B
Beta
0.53
Shares Out
98.88M
P/E (TTM)
45.1
P/S (TTM)
0.74
P/FCF (TTM)
49.51
Rev YoY
-1.2%
EPS YoY
-178.8%
Gross Margin
+20.9%
Op Margin
+10.0%
Net Debt
$4.27B
Current Ratio
0.99
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data